Bills at Jets: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Buffalo Bills (7–1) at New York Jets (2–7)·
NFL Week 10·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Updated Nov 10, 2026, with Week 10 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 9 of the 2026 season
52 of 60 Reasons favor Buffalo. The Bills’ offense has been the NFL’s best at scoring in the red zone, where the Jets’ defense ranks near the bottom, and Buffalo’s passing game ranks 4th on 3rd down against a pass defense that ranks 31st. New York’s counters are real but narrower: its offense has been the NFL’s best against a heavy rush, and it ranks in the top 6 against tight coverage and on play-action passes. The market has Buffalo as a 7.5-point road favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 10 view: Buffalo enters Sunday with the stronger statistical profile: 52 of the game’s 60 Reasons favor the Bills, led by a red-zone offense that has scored 22.5 points per game (best in the NFL) against a Jets defense that has allowed 20.4 (tied for 3rd-worst). New York’s counterarguments come from its offense: the NFL’s best success rate against a heavy rush and a top-6 play-action game. Many of Buffalo’s widest gaps come from the last four weeks, a window in which the Bills played 3 games and the Jets 4. The current line has Buffalo -7.5 with a total of 50.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Buffalo Bills at New York Jets |
| Competition | NFL, Week 10 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ET · CBS |
| Venue | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Records | Buffalo 7–1 · New York 2–7 |
| Line | Buffalo -7.5 · Total 50.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 9, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 9
- The pass defense allowed a 30.6 passer rating on 32 attempts, 2nd-best in the NFL in Week 9, with a 44% completion rate (best) and no touchdown passes.
- The defense didn’t allow a 3rd-down conversion, best in the NFL, and allowed scores on just 17% of drives (2 of 12), 3rd-best.
- James Cook rushed for 107 yards, most among NFL running backs in Week 9, on a league-high 31 touches, and was stuffed on just 7% of his carries (4th-best of 30 qualified RBs).
- Josh Allen took a beating: he was sacked on 11% of his pass attempts (4 of 35), 7th-worst of 30 qualified QBs, and hit on 10 plays, tied for 2nd-most.
- Omar Cooper caught 8 passes, tied for 5th-most among NFL wide receivers in Week 9, and gained 55 yards after the catch (also tied for 5th-most).
- The run game started fast: Jets running backs ran for 87 yards in the 1st half, tied for most in the NFL, and New York ran successful plays on 57% of its 1st-half rush attempts (tied for 4th-best).
- David Bailey recorded 5 solo tackles, tied for most among NFL defensive linemen in Week 9.
- The passing game stalled: Geno Smith posted a 70.4 passer rating, 9th-worst of qualified QBs, and the Jets threw for 123 yards (3rd-worst) and converted 16.7% of their 3rd downs (tied for 2nd-worst).
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Bills at Jets. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
- Player Prop
Question 1 of 3
Which running back is averaging 101.8 rushing yards per game this season, and has a Rushing Yards prop of 91.5 yards this week on PrizePicks?
He has gone Over this rushing line in 5 of 8 games this season.
The betting spin
Answer: James Cook. James Cook is averaging 101.8 rushing yards per game this season, and his PrizePicks Rushing Yards line this week is 91.5. Others in this question: Jonathan Taylor (IND): line 63.5, averaging 72.9 this season; Jaylen Warren (PIT): line 61.5, averaging 88.0 this season. Lines can move before kickoff.
See the prop angles ↓ - Matchup Angle
Question 2 of 3
On 3rd down, which team’s quarterbacks rank 4th-best in the NFL in passer rating, and face the Jets this week, whose defense ranks 2nd-worst in passer rating allowed?
It ranks 2nd-worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Bills. Bills quarterbacks have a 104.7 passer rating on 3rd down this season. The Jets have allowed a 115.4 passer rating on 3rd down this season. Bills: 4th-best in the NFL · Jets: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
See the edge ↓ - Hot Streak
Question 3 of 3
Which of these defenses has gone the most consecutive drives without allowing a touchdown?
The next-longest active streak in the NFL is 19 drives.
The betting spin
Answer: the Bills. The Bills have not allowed a touchdown in any of their last 27 drives, the longest active streak in the NFL. Active streaks (as of Nov 10): Bills 27 · Steelers 19 · Chiefs 17 drives.
See the market context ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Buffalo | New York | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red-zone scoring | 22.5 PPG, best | 20.4 PPG allowed, T-3rd-worst | Buffalo |
| Passing on 3rd down | 104.7 rating, 4th-best | 115.4 allowed, 2nd-worst | Buffalo |
| Passing vs. a light front | 110.7 rating, 4th-best | 115.1 allowed, 2nd-worst | Buffalo |
| Success vs. a heavy rush | 58% allowed, 4th-worst | 67% successful, best | New York |
| Passing vs. tight coverage | 56.3 allowed, 5th-worst | 58.7 rating, 5th-best | New York |
| Play-action success | 52% allowed, T-7th-worst | 55% successful, 6th-best | New York |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 9. Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 60 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 52 favor Buffalo and 8 favor New York.
Where Buffalo Has the Edge
3 verified pairsBuffalo’s red-zone offense, the NFL’s most productive, meets one of its leakiest red-zone defenses
BUFThe Bills have scored 22.5 points per game in the red zone this season.
NYJThe Jets have allowed 20.4 points per game in the red zone this season.
Buffalo: best in the NFL · New York: T-3rd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is one of the largest current-season rank gaps in the game, and the details point the same way. Buffalo has 16 rushing touchdowns in the red zone (most in the NFL) against a Jets defense that has allowed 10 (tied for 3rd-most), and the Bills have scored 5.1 points per red-zone drive (2nd-best) against 4.8 allowed (8th-worst). Since Week 6, New York has allowed 25.0 red-zone points per game, 2nd-worst.
Buffalo has scored 22.5 points per game in the red zone in 2026, best in the NFL, while New York has allowed 20.4 red-zone points per game, tied for 3rd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: red-zone points per game (scored and allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9; Buffalo has played 8 games and New York 9. The rushing-touchdown and points-per-drive pairs come from separate Reasons for this game. “Since Week 6” is the Previous 4 Weeks window, the last four weeks of games. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
On 3rd down, Buffalo’s passing game faces a pass defense that ranks 31st
BUFBills quarterbacks have a 104.7 passer rating on 3rd down this season.
NYJThe Jets have allowed a 115.4 passer rating on 3rd down this season.
Buffalo: 4th-best in the NFL · New York: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Third down is where drives are extended or end, and New York has struggled to get off the field. Buffalo has converted 29% of its 3rd-and-long chances (tied for 5th-best) against a Jets defense that has allowed 32% (4th-worst). The recent gap is wider: since Week 6, Bills quarterbacks have a 98.9 passer rating (7th-best) and the Jets have allowed 123.8 (worst), and Buffalo has gone three-and-out on just 14% of its drives (tied for 2nd-best).
Buffalo’s quarterbacks have a 104.7 passer rating on 3rd down in 2026, 4th-best in the NFL, while New York has allowed a 115.4 passer rating on 3rd down, 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: passer rating on 3rd down (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The 3rd-and-long pair measures conversion rate. The since-Week 6 figures cover the Previous 4 Weeks window, in which Buffalo played 3 games and New York 4. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Against a light front, Buffalo has thrown well and New York has given up big ratings
BUFBills quarterbacks have a 110.7 passer rating against a light front this season.
NYJThe Jets have allowed a 115.1 passer rating with a light front this season.
Buffalo: 4th-best in the NFL · New York: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: A light front puts fewer defenders near the line, usually to add help in coverage, but the Jets haven’t gotten the coverage payoff. The pattern holds against other looks: since Week 6, the Bills have been successful on 53% of pass attempts against a base front (tied for 3rd-best) where the Jets have allowed 60% (worst), and on 52% of all pass attempts (4th-best) against 57% allowed (worst). Josh Allen has topped 227.5 passing yards in each of his last 3 games.
Buffalo’s quarterbacks have a 110.7 passer rating against a light front in 2026, 4th-best in the NFL, while New York has allowed a 115.1 passer rating when using a light front, 2nd-worst.
Data note
“Light front” is a defensive alignment with fewer defenders in the box, as charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure passer rating. 2026 regular season through Week 9. The base-front and overall figures cover the Previous 4 Weeks window and measure pass success rate, not passer rating; the Allen figure comes from this week’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
Where New York Has the Edge
3 verified pairsWhen defenses send extra rushers, New York’s offense has been the NFL’s best, and Buffalo’s heavy rush has leaked
NYJThe Jets have been successful on 67% of their plays against a heavy rush this season.
BUFThe Bills have allowed a 58% success rate when they send a heavy rush this season.
New York: best in the NFL · Buffalo: 4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap among the Reasons that favor New York. On pass attempts against a heavy rush, the Jets have been successful 74% of the time (tied for best) against a Bills defense that has allowed 58% (6th-worst) and pressured the quarterback on just 21% of those dropbacks (tied for 6th-worst). The counterpoint: Buffalo pressures on 31% of dropbacks overall (tied for 2nd-best), and the Jets have been successful on just 21% of pass attempts under pressure (7th-worst), so this edge depends on how often the Bills choose to send extra rushers.
New York’s offense has been successful on 67% of its plays against a heavy rush in 2026, best in the NFL, while Buffalo has allowed a 58% success rate when it sends a heavy rush, 4th-worst.
Data note
“Heavy rush” is FTN Data’s charting of plays where the defense sends more than its standard number of pass rushers. Both sides measure success rate on all plays (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The overall pressure and under-pressure figures come from a separate Reason that favors Buffalo. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
Jets quarterbacks have held up against tight coverage, a spot where Buffalo’s defense has given ground
NYJJets quarterbacks have a 58.7 passer rating against tight coverage this season.
BUFThe Bills have allowed a 56.3 passer rating in tight coverage this season.
New York: 5th-best in the NFL · Buffalo: 5th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Passer ratings are low across the league on tightly covered throws, so the rank matters more than the raw number. New York has done better than most offenses in those windows, and Buffalo has allowed more than most defenses. The flip side: since Week 6, the Jets have pressured quarterbacks on 28% of dropbacks with tight coverage (tied for 8th-best), and Bills quarterbacks have a 4.9 passer rating against tight coverage over that span (tied for 5th-worst).
New York’s quarterbacks have a 58.7 passer rating against tight coverage in 2026, 5th-best in the NFL, while Buffalo has allowed a 56.3 passer rating in tight coverage, 5th-worst.
Data note
“Tight coverage” is FTN Data’s charting of throws into a closely covered receiver. Both sides measure passer rating (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The since-Week 6 pair comes from a separate Reason that favors New York and compares pressure rate with passer rating, related but different stats. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
New York’s play-action game has worked, and Buffalo has allowed success against it
NYJThe Jets have been successful on 55% of their play-action passes this season.
BUFThe Bills have allowed a 52% success rate on play-action passes this season.
New York: 6th-best in the NFL · Buffalo: T-7th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Play action leans on a credible run game, and the Jets have run for 100 or more yards in each of their last 3 games. Since Week 6, New York has also started drives at its own 31.0-yard line on average (10th-best) against a Bills defense that has allowed an average start at the 31.1 (tied for 5th-worst). It cuts both ways: Buffalo has been successful on 62% of its own play-action passes since Week 6 (tied for best) against a Jets defense that has allowed 53% (tied for 7th-worst).
New York has been successful on 55% of its play-action passes in 2026, 6th-best in the NFL, while Buffalo has allowed a 52% success rate on play-action passes, tied for 7th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: success rate on play-action passes (offense achieved, defense allowed), as charted by FTN Data. 2026 regular season through Week 9. The drive-start and Buffalo play-action figures cover the Previous 4 Weeks window, and the rushing-yards streak comes from a Remarkable™ streak note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
BuffaloThis running back has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last 7 games, and his Week 9 rushing total was the most of any NFL back.
New YorkThis running back has topped 37.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games and has been targeted 3 or more times in each of them.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Buffalo as a 7.5-point road favorite with a game total of 50.5. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 52 to 8 in Buffalo’s favor. Since Week 6, the Bills have scored 30.7 points per game (4th-best) and the Jets have allowed 31.8 (2nd-worst). Buffalo’s defense also has the NFL’s longest active streak of drives without allowing a touchdown, 27 (the next-longest active streak is 19). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
On totals, games involving the Bills have gone Over in 5 of 8 this season (62%, tied for the 3rd-highest Over rate in the NFL) and in 3 of 4 Bills road games (tied for 2nd-highest). Games involving the Jets have gone Under in 5 of 9 this season (56%). Past results on totals don’t predict this game.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
7 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | Receptions, 1.5 | Over · 61% | ★★★★★ | 2.0 per game, last 3 | |
| Braelon Allen | Rushing yards, 37.5 | Over · 59% | ★★★★★ | Bills allowed Over to an RB in 7 of 8 | |
| Josh Allen | Passing yards, 227.5 | Over · 59% | ★★★★★ | Over in each of his last 3 games | |
| DJ Moore | Receptions, 3.5 | Under · 57% | ★★★★ | 2.7 per game, last 3 | |
| James Cook | Receptions, 1.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | 3+ targets in 5 of 8 games | |
| James Cook | Rushing attempts, 20.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | Over in 4 straight games | |
| Josh Allen | Pass completions, 20.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | Over in each of his last 3 games |
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played. DJ Moore’s prop data covers 6 games this season.
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. No New York pass catcher or quarterback prop reached a 4- or 5-star rating this week. Geno Smith posted a 70.4 passer rating in Week 9, 9th-worst among qualified quarterbacks.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team “has the edge” on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted “Strong Edge / Edge / Lean” score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 6, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. The spread and total come from Inside Edge game data, and prop lines are PrizePicks lines via Remarkable™. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Bills at Jets?
Buffalo holds the broader statistical edge: 52 of the 60 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Bills, led by an offense that has scored 22.5 points per game in the red zone this season (best in the NFL) against a New York defense that has allowed 20.4 (tied for 3rd-worst), and a passing game with a 104.7 passer rating on 3rd down (4th-best) against a Jets defense that has allowed 115.4 (2nd-worst). New York’s clearest counters are an offense that has been successful on 67% of its plays against a heavy rush (best in the NFL), a 58.7 passer rating against tight coverage (5th-best) and a 55% success rate on play-action passes (6th-best). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Bills at Jets?
The current line has Buffalo as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is New York’s strongest counterargument?
The Jets have been successful on 67% of their plays against a heavy rush this season, best in the NFL, and Buffalo has allowed a 58% success rate when it sends a heavy rush, 4th-worst. New York’s quarterbacks also have a 58.7 passer rating against tight coverage (5th-best) against a Bills defense that has allowed 56.3 in tight coverage (5th-worst), and the Jets have been successful on 55% of play-action passes (6th-best) against a Bills defense that has allowed 52% (tied for 7th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for Bills at Jets?
James Cook has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last 7 games and has 100 or more yards from scrimmage in each of his last 4; his 107 rushing yards in Week 9 were the most of any NFL running back. Braelon Allen is averaging 95.6 rushing yards per game over his last 5 games and has topped 37.5 rushing yards in 4 of them.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.