Chargers at Ravens: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Los Angeles Chargers (0–8) at Baltimore Ravens (4–5)·
NFL Week 10, Monday Night Football·
Kickoff Mon, Nov 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Updated Nov 10, 2026, with Week 10 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 9 of the 2026 season
26 of 35 Reasons favor Baltimore. The Ravens’ defense ranks tied for 3rd-best against a stacked front, where the Chargers’ offense ranks 5th-worst, and Baltimore’s offense has scored early against a defense that has allowed the 3rd-most first-half points per game. The Chargers’ counters are narrower but sharp: their defense has been the NFL’s best on 3rd and short, and since Week 6 it has limited running backs in the passing game and tight-coverage throws. The market has Baltimore as a 5.5-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 10 view: Baltimore enters Monday night with the stronger statistical profile: 26 of the game’s 35 Reasons favor the Ravens, led by a defense that has allowed a 39% success rate against a stacked front (tied for 3rd-best in the NFL) and an offense that has scored 14.2 first-half points per game (tied for 5th-best) against a Chargers defense that has allowed 14.5 (3rd-worst). The Chargers’ clearest counterargument is on 3rd and short, where their defense ranks best in the NFL and Baltimore’s offense ranks tied for 2nd-worst. The quarterback picture adds uncertainty: Jacoby Brissett is the Ravens quarterback in this week’s prop insights, while Joe Fagnano threw 18 passes for Baltimore in Week 9. The current line has Baltimore -5.5 with a total of 38.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens |
| Competition | NFL, Week 10 (Monday Night Football) |
| Kickoff | Mon, Nov 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET · ESPN |
| Venue | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Records | Los Angeles 0–8 · Baltimore 4–5 |
| Line | Baltimore -5.5 · Total 38.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 9, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 9
- Justin Herbert averaged 8.4 yards per attempt (193 on 23), 8th-best of 30 qualified QBs in Week 9, and 14.8 yards per completion (6th-best).
- The run game found room: Chargers running backs rushed for 123 yards, 5th-most in the NFL, and averaged 5.8 yards per carry against a base front (4th-best).
- The receivers made their catches count: Chargers wide receivers averaged 21.5 yards per reception (129 on 6), best in the NFL, with 13.0 yards after the catch per reception (also best).
- Herbert was under siege: he was pressured on 41% of his plays, highest of 31 qualified QBs, and Chargers wide receivers caught just 6 of 17 targets (35%), 2nd-worst in the NFL.
- Justice Hill rushed for 85 yards, 6th-most among NFL running backs, and averaged 7.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (92 on 12), best of 39 qualified RBs.
- The backfield carried the offense: Ravens running backs rushed for 142 yards (4th-most in the NFL) at 5.5 yards per carry (4th-best).
- Derrick Henry broke tackles, averaging 2.6 yards after contact per carry on 17 carries, 6th-best of 30 qualified RBs, and was stuffed on just 2 of them (12%, 9th-best).
- The passing game stalled: Joe Fagnano averaged 3.3 yards per attempt (60 on 18) with a 22.7 passer rating, both 2nd-worst of 30 qualified QBs, and Ravens wide receivers had 26 receiving yards, fewest in the NFL.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Chargers at Ravens. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
- Player Prop
Question 1 of 3
Which running back is averaging 51.7 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games, and has a Rushing Yards prop of 78.5 yards this week on PrizePicks?
He ran for 57 yards on 17 carries in Week 9.
The betting spin
Answer: Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry is averaging 51.7 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games, and his PrizePicks Rushing Yards line this week is 78.5. Others in this question: Breece Hall (NYJ): line 46.5, averaging 40.7 over his last 3 games; James Cook (BUF): line 91.5, averaging 94.0 over his last 3 games. Lines can move before kickoff.
See the prop angles ↓ - Matchup Angle
Question 2 of 3
On 3rd and short, which defense ranks best in the NFL in conversion rate allowed, and faces the Ravens this week, whose offense ranks tied for 2nd-worst in conversion rate?
No defense in the NFL has been better.
The betting spin
Answer: the Chargers. The Chargers have allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season. The Ravens have converted 48% of their 3rd-and-short plays this season. Chargers: best in the NFL · Ravens: T-2nd-worst in the NFL.
See the edge ↓ - Key Insight
Question 3 of 3
Which team’s games have gone UNDER the 2nd-most often in the NFL this season, and takes on the Ravens this week?
Only one team’s games have gone Under more often.
The betting spin
Answer: the Chargers. Games involving the Chargers have gone UNDER in 75% (6-2) of their games (43.4% ROI) this season — 2nd-most in the NFL.
See the market context ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Los Angeles | Baltimore | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Success vs. a stacked front | 37% successful, 5th-worst | 39% allowed, T-3rd-best | Baltimore |
| 1st-half scoring | 14.5 PPG allowed, 3rd-worst | 14.2 PPG, T-5th-best | Baltimore |
| Passes to the left | 7.6 YPA allowed, 8th-worst | 9.1 YPA, best | Baltimore |
| 3rd-and-short conversions | 36% allowed, best | 48% converted, T-2nd-worst | Los Angeles |
| RB receiving yards, since Week 6 | 15.7 YPG allowed, 3rd-best | 18.8 YPG, 4th-worst | Los Angeles |
| Passing vs. tight coverage, since Week 6 | 17.1 rating allowed, 8th-best | 3.4 rating, 4th-worst | Los Angeles |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 9; rows marked “since Week 6” cover the last four weeks of games. Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 35 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 26 favor Baltimore and 9 favor Los Angeles.
Where Baltimore Has the Edge
3 verified pairsBaltimore’s defense has held up against a stacked front, where the Chargers’ offense has struggled
BALThe Ravens have allowed a 39% success rate on plays against a stacked front this season.
LACThe Chargers have been successful on 37% of their plays against a stacked front this season.
Baltimore: T-3rd-best in the NFL · Los Angeles: 5th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is tied for the largest rank gap among the Reasons that favor Baltimore, and it holds on both runs and passes: the Ravens have allowed a 38% rushing success rate against a stacked front (6th-best) and a 41% passing success rate (6th-best), against Chargers rates of 37% (T-6th-worst) and 39% (T-5th-worst). Since Week 6, Baltimore has allowed a 50.3 passer rating with a stacked front (4th-best), and Chargers quarterbacks have a 70.8 rating against one (9th-worst). The counterpoint: Chargers backs averaged 5.8 yards per carry against a base front in Week 9, 4th-best in the NFL.
Baltimore’s defense has allowed a 39% success rate against a stacked front in 2026, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL, while the Chargers’ offense has been successful on 37% of its plays against a stacked front, 5th-worst.
Data note
“Stacked front” is a defensive alignment with extra defenders in the box, as charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure the same stat: success rate on all plays (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9; the passer-rating figures cover the last four weeks. The Week 9 base-front figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data / FTN = FTN Data).
Baltimore has scored early, and the Chargers have given up the 3rd-most first-half points
BALThe Ravens have scored 14.2 points per game in the 1st half this season.
LACThe Chargers have allowed 14.5 points per game in the 1st half this season.
Baltimore: T-5th-best in the NFL · Los Angeles: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The early-game gap runs both ways. The Chargers have scored just 6.8 first-half points per game (2nd-worst) against a Ravens defense that has allowed 9.6 (8th-best), and Baltimore has scored 7.2 points per game in the 1st quarter alone (T-2nd-best) against a Chargers defense that has allowed 5.4 (T-8th-worst). The Ravens have also scored on 46% of their first-half drives (8th-best). The caveat: in Week 9, Joe Fagnano averaged 2.7 yards per attempt in the 1st half, worst of 28 qualified quarterbacks.
Baltimore has scored 14.2 first-half points per game in 2026, tied for 5th-best in the NFL, and the Chargers have allowed 14.5 first-half points per game, 3rd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: points per game in the 1st half (offense scored, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The scoring-drive and 1st-quarter figures come from separate Reasons for this game, and the Fagnano figure from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Baltimore’s best passing direction meets a soft spot in the Chargers’ coverage
BALThe Ravens have thrown for 9.1 yards per attempt on passes to the left this season.
LACThe Chargers have allowed 7.6 yards per dropback on passes to the left this season.
Baltimore: best in the NFL · Los Angeles: 8th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The Ravens have also thrown for 7.7 yards per attempt on early downs (T-9th-best) against a Chargers defense that has allowed 8.1 (3rd-worst). Since Week 6, Baltimore has thrown 10 yards or shorter on 78% of its passes (4th-highest), and the Chargers have allowed 7.5 yards per dropback on those throws (T-2nd-worst). The big caveat is who’s throwing: these season numbers cover all of Baltimore’s quarterbacks, and Ravens wide receivers had just 26 receiving yards in Week 9, fewest in the NFL.
Baltimore has thrown for 9.1 yards per attempt on passes to the left in 2026, best in the NFL, and the Chargers have allowed 7.6 yards per dropback on those throws, 8th-worst.
Data note
Direction is where the pass was thrown, as charted in the Sportradar feed. Both sides measure yards per pass attempt (offense) and per dropback allowed (defense). 2026 regular season through Week 9; the short-pass figures cover the last four weeks, and the Baltimore side of that pair measures pass share, not efficiency. The Week 9 receiver figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Where Los Angeles Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe Chargers’ short-yardage defense meets one of the NFL’s least reliable 3rd-and-short offenses
LACThe Chargers have allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season.
BALThe Ravens have converted 48% of their 3rd-and-short plays this season.
Los Angeles: best in the NFL · Baltimore: T-2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest current-season rank gap of any Reason in the game. It matters for a Ravens offense that has run the ball on 45% of its plays since Week 6 (T-7th-highest). The counterpoint is near the goal line: Baltimore has 11 rushing touchdowns this season and the Chargers have allowed 11, both tied for 4th-most, and since Week 6 Los Angeles has allowed 5.0 yards per carry (T-4th-worst).
The Chargers’ defense has allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short in 2026, best in the NFL, while Baltimore’s offense has converted 48% of its 3rd-and-short plays, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: 3rd-down conversion rate on 3rd and short (offense converted, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9; the run-rate and yards-per-carry figures cover the last four weeks and come from Reasons that favor Baltimore. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Since Week 6, the Chargers have taken running backs out of the passing game
LACThe Chargers have allowed 15.7 receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 6.
BALRavens running backs have 18.8 receiving yards per game since Week 6.
Los Angeles: 3rd-best in the NFL · Baltimore: 4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Baltimore’s backs have been a 3rd-down outlet: Justice Hill has 8 receptions on 3rd down this season (T-2nd-most among NFL running backs) and 11 3rd-down targets (also T-2nd-most). This week’s prop insights point the same way, though with low ratings: Hill has topped 14.5 receiving yards in 3 of 9 games, and Derrick Henry has topped 6.5 in 4 of 9.
Since Week 6, the Chargers have allowed 15.7 receiving yards per game to running backs, 3rd-best in the NFL, while Ravens running backs have averaged 18.8 receiving yards per game, 4th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: running back receiving yards per game (offense gained, defense allowed). “Since Week 6” is the last four weeks of games, which counts as current-season data. The Hill figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes, and the prop figures from this week’s 2-star prop insights (PrizePicks lines). Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
When the Chargers have had receivers covered tightly, Ravens quarterbacks have had almost nothing
LACThe Chargers have allowed a 17.1 passer rating with tight coverage since Week 6.
BALRavens quarterbacks have a 3.4 passer rating against tight coverage since Week 6.
Los Angeles: 8th-best in the NFL · Baltimore: 4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The Chargers have also pressured opposing quarterbacks on 30% of pass attempts with tight coverage over the same stretch (T-5th-best). Baltimore’s recent passing has been thin: Joe Fagnano averaged 3.3 yards per attempt in Week 9 and didn’t complete a pass of 20+ yards. The open question is the quarterback: Jacoby Brissett is the Ravens quarterback in this week’s prop insights, and the data doesn’t show how many of these recent attempts were his.
Since Week 6, the Chargers have allowed a 17.1 passer rating with tight coverage, 8th-best in the NFL, and Ravens quarterbacks have a 3.4 passer rating against tight coverage, 4th-worst.
Data note
“Tight coverage” is FTN Data’s charting of throws into a closely covered receiver. Both sides measure passer rating (offense posted, defense allowed). “Since Week 6” is the last four weeks of games; ratings on tight-coverage throws are small samples. The pressure figure comes from a separate Reason for this game, and the Fagnano figures from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data / SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Monday night, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
Los AngelesThis quarterback is averaging more than 28 rushing yards per game over his last 5 games, and his 8.4 yards per attempt in Week 9 ranked 8th among qualified NFL quarterbacks.
BaltimoreThis running back led all qualified NFL backs in yards per touch in Week 9 and is averaging 36.0 rushing yards per game over his last 5.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Baltimore as a 5.5-point home favorite with a game total of 38.5. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 26 to 9 in Baltimore’s favor. On the total, the two teams’ trends split: games involving the Chargers have gone Under in 75% of their games this season (6–2, 2nd-most in the NFL), and games involving the Ravens have gone Over in 62% (5–3–1, tied for 3rd-most). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
3 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | Rushing yards, 78.5 | Under · 59% | ★★★★★ | Under 78.5 in each of his last 4 games | |
| Justin Herbert | Rushing yards, 21.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | 16.0 per game, last 3 | |
| Jacoby Brissett | Pass completions, 17.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | Over 17.5 in 4 of his last 5 |
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played. Only 3 of this game’s 16 prop insights rate 4 or 5 stars.
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Small samples and role questions: Brissett’s figures cover the 8 games in his prop-insight log, while Joe Fagnano threw 18 passes for Baltimore in Week 9; who starts at quarterback could change these angles.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team “has the edge” on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted “Strong Edge / Edge / Lean” score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 6, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Game lines come from Inside Edge game data, and prop lines are PrizePicks lines via Remarkable™. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Chargers at Ravens?
Baltimore holds the broader statistical edge: 26 of the 35 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Ravens, led by a defense that has allowed a 39% success rate against a stacked front this season (tied for 3rd-best in the NFL) against a Los Angeles offense that has been successful on 37% of those plays (5th-worst), and an offense that has scored 14.2 first-half points per game (tied for 5th-best) against a Chargers defense that has allowed 14.5 (3rd-worst). The Chargers’ clearest counter is their defense on 3rd and short, where it has allowed a 36% conversion rate (best in the NFL) against a Baltimore offense that converts 48% (tied for 2nd-worst). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Chargers at Ravens?
The current line has Baltimore as a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 38.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is the Chargers’ strongest counterargument?
The Chargers’ defense has allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season, best in the NFL, and Baltimore has converted 48% of its 3rd-and-short plays, tied for 2nd-worst. Since Week 6, the Chargers have also allowed just 15.7 receiving yards per game to running backs (3rd-best) and a 17.1 passer rating with tight coverage (8th-best), against a Ravens passing game with a 3.4 rating against tight coverage over the same stretch (4th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for Chargers at Ravens?
Justin Herbert is averaging 28.4 rushing yards per game over his last 5 games and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt in Week 9, 8th-best of 30 qualified NFL quarterbacks. Justice Hill rushed for 85 yards in Week 9, 6th-most among NFL running backs, and averaged 7.7 yards from scrimmage per touch, best of 39 qualified backs; he is averaging 36.0 rushing yards per game over his last 5.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.