Patriots at Lions: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
New England Patriots (5–4) at Detroit Lions (6–2)·
NFL Week 10, International Game in Munich·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 9:30 AM ET
Updated Nov 10, 2026, with Week 10 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 9 of the 2026 season
40 of 61 Reasons favor Detroit. The Lions’ passing game ranks 4th in the NFL by passer rating against a Patriots defense that ranks 6th-worst, and since Week 6 Detroit holds the game’s largest rank gaps on early-down passing. New England’s counters are real: a downfield passing game that meets the NFL’s most generous defense on 20+ yard throws, a touchdown rate through the air that Detroit has struggled to stop, and a run defense that has held up against a base rush, where Detroit’s ground game ranks 2nd-worst. The market has Detroit as a 3-point favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 10 view: Detroit enters Sunday morning’s International Game in Munich with the stronger statistical profile: 40 of the game’s 61 Reasons favor the Lions, led by a passing game with a 106.4 passer rating this season (4th-best in the NFL) against a New England defense that has allowed a 100.2 rating (6th-worst). New England’s clearest counterargument is its downfield passing: the Patriots have gained 20+ yards on 12% of their pass attempts (tied for 2nd-best), and Detroit has allowed 20+ yards on 11% (tied for worst). Detroit has played 8 games to New England’s 9. The current line has Detroit -3 with a total of 50.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | New England Patriots at Detroit Lions |
| Competition | NFL, Week 10 (International Game) |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 9:30 AM ET · FOX |
| Venue | Munich, Germany (International Game); Detroit is the designated home team |
| Records | New England 5–4 · Detroit 6–2 |
| Line | Detroit -3 · Total 50.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 9, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 9
- Drake Maye threw for 299 yards, 4th-most among NFL quarterbacks in Week 9, with 7 completions of 20+ yards, tied for most.
- Patriots running backs averaged 6.1 yards per carry (91 yards on 15 carries), best in the NFL, and were stuffed on just 1 of 15 runs (7%), 2nd-best.
- The offense kept moving the chains: first downs on 21 of 61 plays (34%), 5th-best in the NFL, and Patriots tight ends had 87 receiving yards, 4th-most.
- The pass defense was torched: a 153.2 passer rating and 12.0 yards per dropback allowed, both worst in the NFL in Week 9, with 20+ yard completions on 7 of 29 attempts (24%), also worst.
- The defense didn’t allow a touchdown, tied for fewest in Week 9, and held opponents to a 58.8 passer rating (3rd-best) and 151 passing yards (5th-fewest).
- The offense lived in opponent territory: 71% of Detroit’s plays came on the other side of the field, best in the NFL, with no three-and-outs (tied for best) and scores on 5 of 8 drives (62%), 2nd-best.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 8 passes on 10 targets, tied for 5th-most receptions among NFL wide receivers in Week 9.
- The passing game sputtered: Jared Goff posted a 70.4 passer rating, 7th-worst of 28 qualified QBs, including 42.6 in the 1st half (worst of 26), and was sacked on 3 of 28 dropbacks (11%).
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Patriots at Lions. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
- Player Prop
Question 1 of 3
Which running back is averaging 114.3 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games, and has a Rushing Yards prop of 98.5 yards this week on PrizePicks?
He has gone Over this rushing line in 5 of 8 games this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Jahmyr Gibbs. Jahmyr Gibbs is averaging 114.3 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games, and his PrizePicks Rushing Yards line this week is 98.5. Others in this question: James Cook (BUF): line 91.5, averaging 94.0 over his last 3 games; Chuba Hubbard (CAR): line 74.5, averaging 64.3 over his last 3 games. Lines can move before kickoff.
See the prop angles ↓ - Matchup Angle
Question 2 of 3
Which offense ranks tied for 2nd-best in the NFL in the share of pass attempts gaining 20+ yards, and faces the Lions this week, whose defense ranks tied for worst in the share allowed?
It’s tied for worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: the Patriots. The Patriots have gained 20+ yards on 12% of their pass attempts this season. The Lions have allowed 20+ yards on 11% of opponent pass attempts this season. Patriots: T-2nd-best in the NFL · Lions: T-worst in the NFL.
See the edge ↓ - Key Insight
Question 3 of 3
Which team’s games have gone OVER the 2nd-most often in the NFL this season, and takes on the Lions this week?
This team has played 9 games, and 6 of them went Over.
The betting spin
Answer: the Patriots. Games involving the Patriots have gone OVER in 67% (6-3) of their games (27.1% ROI) this season — 2nd-most in the NFL.
See the market context ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | New England | Detroit | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passer rating | 100.2 allowed, 6th-worst | 106.4, 4th-best | Detroit |
| Passing vs. a stacked front | 62.0 rating, 4th-worst | 91.7 allowed, 9th-best | Detroit |
| Play-action pass success | 58% allowed, T-4th-worst | 59% successful, 6th-best | Detroit |
| 20+ yard pass plays | 12% of attempts, T-2nd-best | 11% allowed, T-worst | New England |
| Passing TDs per game | 2.0, T-6th-best | 2.2 allowed, T-worst | New England |
| Run success vs. a base rush | 35% allowed, T-6th-best | 21% successful, 2nd-worst | New England |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 9 (New England has played 9 games, Detroit 8). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 61 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 40 favor Detroit and 21 favor New England.
Where Detroit Has the Edge
3 verified pairsDetroit’s passing game ranks near the top of the NFL, and New England’s pass defense ranks near the bottom
DETLions quarterbacks have a 106.4 passer rating this season.
NEThe Patriots have allowed a 100.2 passer rating this season.
Detroit: 4th-best in the NFL · New England: 6th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The recent window is even starker. Since Week 6, the Lions have thrown for 9.1 yards per attempt on early downs (2nd-best) against a Patriots defense that has allowed 9.6 (worst), and 10.7 on 1st down (2nd-best) against 10.6 allowed (worst), the largest rank gaps of any Reason in the game. Over the full season, Detroit has thrown for 268.1 yards per game (5th-best) and New England has allowed 231.9 (8th-worst). The counterpoint: Jared Goff posted a 70.4 passer rating in Week 9 (7th-worst of 28 qualified QBs) and is averaging 216.3 passing yards over his last 3 games.
Detroit’s quarterbacks have a 106.4 passer rating in 2026, 4th-best in the NFL, while New England’s defense has allowed a 100.2 passer rating, 6th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: passer rating (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. "Since Week 6" figures cover the last four weeks of games. The Week 9 rating comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note, and the last-3 passing average from this week’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
When Detroit loads the box, New England’s passing game has struggled
DETThe Lions have allowed a 91.7 passer rating when using a stacked front this season.
NEPatriots quarterbacks have a 62.0 passer rating against a stacked front this season.
Detroit: 9th-best in the NFL · New England: 4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: A stacked front puts extra defenders near the line of scrimmage, and Detroit has turned it into pressure: the Lions have pressured quarterbacks on 46% of dropbacks with a stacked front (2nd-best), the largest current-season rank gap among the Reasons that favor Detroit. The pressure shows up elsewhere too. Detroit has pressured on 38% of play-action dropbacks (4th-best), where Patriots quarterbacks have an 82.3 rating (7th-worst), and since Week 6 Patriots quarterbacks have a 0.0 rating against tight coverage (tied for worst). The counterpoint: Patriots quarterbacks have a 135.2 rating against open coverage this season (5th-best).
New England’s quarterbacks have a 62.0 passer rating against a stacked front in 2026, 4th-worst in the NFL, while Detroit has allowed a 91.7 rating when using a stacked front, 9th-best.
Data note
"Stacked front" is a defensive alignment with extra defenders in the box, as charted by FTN Data. Both headline lines measure passer rating (offense achieved, defense allowed). The 46% figure measures a related but different stat, pressures per dropback, from a separate Reason. 2026 regular season through Week 9; the tight-coverage figure covers the last four weeks. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
Detroit’s play-action passing has been efficient, a soft spot for New England’s defense
DETThe Lions have been successful on 59% of their play-action pass attempts this season.
NEThe Patriots have allowed a 58% success rate on play-action pass attempts this season.
Detroit: 6th-best in the NFL · New England: T-4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It isn’t only play action. Lions quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating with motion this season (5th-best) against a Patriots defense that has allowed 102.6 against motion (6th-worst), and since Week 6 Detroit has been successful on 57% of pass attempts with motion (2nd-best) against 51% allowed (tied for 6th-worst). Lions wide receivers have 10 receiving touchdowns this season (tied for 8th-most), and New England has allowed 12 to wide receivers, most in the NFL.
Detroit has been successful on 59% of its play-action pass attempts in 2026, 6th-best in the NFL, and New England has allowed a 58% success rate on those throws, tied for 4th-worst.
Data note
Play action and motion are charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure the same stat: pass success rate on play-action passes (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9; the since-Week 6 motion figures cover the last four weeks, and the wide receiver touchdown figures come from a separate Sportradar Reason. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
Where New England Has the Edge
3 verified pairsNew England’s downfield passing meets the NFL’s most generous defense on big plays
NEThe Patriots have gained 20+ yards on 12% of their pass attempts this season.
DETThe Lions have allowed 20+ yards on 11% of opponent pass attempts this season.
New England: T-2nd-best in the NFL · Detroit: T-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is tied for the largest current-season rank gap among the Reasons that favor New England, and the volume backs it up: the Patriots have thrown for 261.0 yards per game (9th-best) and Detroit has allowed 260.9 (worst). Patriots quarterbacks also have a 135.2 rating against open coverage (5th-best) against a Lions defense that has allowed 127.9 (9th-worst). In Week 9, Drake Maye had 7 completions of 20+ yards, tied for most. The counterpoint: Detroit has allowed fewer than 300 passing yards in each of its last 4 games and held its Week 9 opponent to 151.
New England has gained 20+ yards on 12% of its pass attempts in 2026, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, while Detroit has allowed 20+ yards on 11% of attempts, tied for worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: the share of pass attempts gaining 20+ yards (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. This week’s prop insights list Detroit at 283.1 passing yards allowed per game, which differs from the 260.9 in the Reasons; this page uses the Reason figure for rankings. The Week 9 and 4-game figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week and streak notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data and FTN = FTN Data).
New England finds the end zone through the air, and Detroit has allowed passing touchdowns at the NFL’s highest rate
NEThe Patriots have averaged 2.0 passing touchdowns per game this season.
DETThe Lions have allowed 2.2 passing touchdowns per game this season.
New England: T-6th-best in the NFL · Detroit: T-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The Patriots throw on 56% of their red-zone plays (tied for 3rd-highest), and Detroit has allowed 13 receiving touchdowns in the red zone (tied for 3rd-most). Drake Maye has thrown 2 or more touchdown passes in each of his last 6 games. The counterpoints: the Patriots have run just 12% of their plays in the red zone (7th-worst), and Detroit hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown in its last 14 defensive drives.
New England has averaged 2.0 passing touchdowns per game in 2026, tied for 6th-best in the NFL, while Detroit has allowed 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, tied for worst.
Data note
Both sides measure passing touchdowns per game (offense thrown, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9; Detroit’s figure covers 8 games and New England’s 9. The red-zone figures come from separate Reasons, and the Maye and 14-drive figures from Remarkable™ streak notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
New England’s run defense has held up against a base rush, where Detroit’s ground game has struggled
NEThe Patriots have allowed a 35% success rate on rush attempts against a base rush this season.
DETThe Lions have been successful on 21% of rush attempts against a base rush this season.
New England: T-6th-best in the NFL · Detroit: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is tied for the largest current-season rank gap among the Reasons that favor New England. The Patriots haven’t allowed more than 97.5 rushing yards to an opposing running back in any of their 9 games, which matters against Jahmyr Gibbs, who is averaging 105.9 rushing yards per game. New England’s offense has also gone three-and-out on just 7% of its 4th-quarter drives (tied for 6th-best) against a Lions defense that has forced them on 8% (6th-worst). The counterpoints: Detroit has run for 100+ yards in each of its last 4 games, and since Week 6 Lions running backs have averaged 2.6 yards after contact per carry (2nd-best).
New England has allowed a 35% success rate on rush attempts against a base rush in 2026, tied for 6th-best in the NFL, while Detroit has been successful on 21% of its rush attempts against a base rush, 2nd-worst.
Data note
"Base rush" is FTN Data’s charting of plays where the defense rushes its standard number of players, without an added blitz. Both sides measure rushing success rate (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 9. The 97.5-yard and Gibbs figures come from this week’s prop insights, the 100-yard figure from a Remarkable™ streak note, and the yards-after-contact figure (last four weeks) from a Reason that favors Detroit. Source: Inside Edge Week 10 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday morning, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
New EnglandThis quarterback has thrown 2 or more touchdown passes in each of his last 6 games, a run that began Oct. 4.
DetroitThis receiver has 9 or more fantasy points in each of his last 13 games, the longest active streak among NFL receivers by 3 games.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Detroit as a 3-point favorite with a game total of 50.5. The game is played in Munich, Germany, with Detroit as the designated home team. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 40 to 21 in Detroit’s favor. On scoring since Week 6, Detroit has scored on 45% of its drives (tied for 7th-best) and New England’s defense has allowed scores on 51% (tied for 2nd-worst). Both pass defenses rank in the bottom third this season: Detroit has allowed 260.9 passing yards per game (worst) and New England 231.9 (8th-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
6 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kiner | Rushing yards, 52.5 | Under · 57% | ★★★★ | 35.3 per game, last 3 | |
| Drake Maye | Rushing yards, 24.5 | Under · 56% | ★★★★ | 11.3 per game, last 3 | |
| Jared Goff | Completions, 24 | Under · 56% | ★★★★ | Under 24 in each of his last 4 games | |
| Sam LaPorta | Receiving yards, 44.5 | Under · 56% | ★★★★ | Under in each of his last 3 | |
| Isaac TeSlaa | Receptions, 1.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | 3+ targets in each of his last 5 | |
| Jameson Williams | Receptions, 3.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | 5+ targets in 7 of 8 games |
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played.
Line source: PrizePicks line via Remarkable™. Small samples: Detroit has played 8 games to New England’s 9, and Isaac TeSlaa has played 7 of Detroit’s 8.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 6, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data, and player prop lines are PrizePicks lines via Remarkable™. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
5 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Patriots at Lions?
Detroit holds the broader statistical edge: 40 of the 61 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Lions, led by a passing game with a 106.4 passer rating this season (4th-best in the NFL) against a New England defense that has allowed a 100.2 rating (6th-worst), and a defense that has allowed a 91.7 rating with a stacked front (9th-best) against a Patriots passing game rated 62.0 in those situations (4th-worst). New England’s clearest counters are its downfield passing, with 20+ yard gains on 12% of attempts (tied for 2nd-best) against a Detroit defense that has allowed them on 11% (tied for worst), 2.0 passing touchdowns per game against a defense that has allowed 2.2 (tied for worst), and a run defense that has allowed a 35% success rate against a base rush (tied for 6th-best). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Patriots at Lions?
The current line has Detroit as a 3-point favorite with a total of 50.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 10, 2026). The game is an International Game in Munich, Germany, with Detroit as the designated home team. These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is New England’s strongest counterargument?
New England has thrown for 20+ yards on 12% of its pass attempts this season, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, and Detroit has allowed 20+ yards on 11% of attempts, tied for worst. The Patriots have also averaged 2.0 passing touchdowns per game (tied for 6th-best) against a Lions defense that has allowed 2.2 (tied for worst), and Drake Maye has thrown 2 or more touchdown passes in each of his last 6 games. Detroit has played 8 games this season to New England’s 9.
Who are the Blazing Performers for Patriots at Lions?
Drake Maye has thrown 2 or more touchdown passes in each of his last 6 games and is averaging 285.6 passing yards per game over his last 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 9 or more fantasy points in each of his last 13 games, the longest active streak among NFL receivers by 3 games, and has 5 or more receptions in each of his last 5.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.