Buccaneers at Bears: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) at Chicago Bears (6-2)·
NFL Week 9, Sunday night·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 8:20 PM ET
Updated Nov 4, 2026, with Week 9 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 8 of the 2026 season
21 of 34 Reasons favor Chicago. The Bears’ pass rush ranks near the top of the NFL in almost every look, and Tampa Bay’s passing game ranks near the bottom against those same looks. Chicago’s defense has also been among the league’s stingiest on 3rd and long. Tampa Bay’s counters are real, though: a defense that has forced the 2nd-most turnovers since Week 5 against a Bears offense with the 2nd-most giveaways, the NFL’s best run defense on runs to the left, and a passing game that has found room up the middle. The market has Chicago as a 6-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 9 view: Chicago enters Sunday night with the stronger statistical profile: 21 of the game’s 34 Reasons favor the Bears, most built on a pass rush that has pressured quarterbacks on 35% of pass attempts with a base front (2nd-best in the NFL) against a Tampa Bay passing game that has been successful on just 36% of attempts against a base front (2nd-worst). Tampa Bay’s clearest counterarguments are its takeaways (10 since Week 5, 2nd-most) and a run defense that has allowed 2.5 yards per carry on runs to the left, best in the NFL. The current line has Chicago -6 with a total of 47.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) at Chicago Bears (6-2) |
| Competition | NFL, Week 9 · Sunday Night Football (NBC) |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 8:20 PM ET |
| Venue | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Line | Chicago -6 · Total 47.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 8, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 8
- Tampa Bay’s running backs rushed for 310 yards, most in the NFL in Week 8, at 6.0 yards per carry. Bucky Irving had 170 of them on 27 carries.
- The defense didn’t allow a score on any of 13 opponent drives, best in the NFL, and held Atlanta to a 12.0 passer rating on 24 attempts, also best.
- The Buccaneers forced 4 turnovers, tied for most in the NFL, and didn’t allow a single 3rd-down conversion (best in the league).
- The passing game barely showed up: none of Tampa Bay’s 15 first downs came through the air (lowest in the NFL), and its wide receivers finished with 0 receiving yards.
- Caleb Williams had 4 completions of 20+ yards, tied for 5th-most among NFL quarterbacks, and posted a 101.0 passer rating on 34 attempts (10th-best of 28 qualified QBs).
- The defense allowed a 9% 3rd-down conversion rate, 2nd-best in the NFL, and successful plays on just 27% of snaps, also 2nd-best.
- The run defense allowed first downs on 5% of rush attempts, 2nd-best in the NFL, and didn’t allow a rushing touchdown.
- The backfield was the soft spot: Bears running backs averaged 3.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (107 yards on 35 touches), 4th-worst in the NFL.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Buccaneers at Bears. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Hot Streak
Question 1 of 5
Which quarterback has a completions line of 21.5 this week and is averaging 25.3 completions per game over his last 3 games?
He has the NFL’s best passer rating on motion plays this season among qualified QBs.
The betting spin
Answer: Caleb Williams. He’s completed more than 21.5 passes in each of his last 3 games and is averaging 22.4 for the season. Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 59%, a 5-star insight. He has played 5 of Chicago’s 8 games.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 2 of 5
Since Week 5, how many turnovers has Tampa Bay’s defense forced?
It ranks 2nd-most in the NFL, and 4 of them came in Week 8 alone.
The betting spin
Answer: 10, 2nd-most in the NFL. Chicago has turned the ball over 9 times over the same stretch, also 2nd-most, which ties for the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. It’s Tampa Bay’s best path to flipping a matchup that otherwise leans Chicago.
See the edge ↓ -
Favorable Matchup
Question 3 of 5
With a base front, Chicago has pressured opposing quarterbacks on what share of pass attempts this season?
It ranks 2nd-best in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 35%, 2nd-best in the NFL. Tampa Bay has been successful on just 36% of pass attempts against a base front, 2nd-worst, and that pairing is tied for the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game.
See the edge ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 4 of 5
Which running back has a rushing-yards line of 63.5 this week and is averaging 107.3 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games?
He averages 6.3 yards per carry on runs to the left, 2nd-best among qualified NFL running backs.
The betting spin
Answer: Bucky Irving. He’s been rolling, but Chicago hasn’t allowed more than 63.5 rushing yards to an opposing running back in any of its last 5 games (2 of 8 this season), and it has allowed 55.7 rushing yards per game to backs over its last 3. Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 60%.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Player Prop
Question 5 of 5
Which quarterback has a completions line of 18.5 this week and is averaging 8.0 completions per game over his last 3 games?
He hasn’t thrown more than 1 touchdown pass in any of his 5 games this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Baker Mayfield. He hasn’t completed more than 18.5 passes in any of his last 3 games (2 of 5 this season), and Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 58%. He has played 5 of Tampa Bay’s 8 games, so the sample is small.
See the prop angles ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Tampa Bay | Chicago | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing vs. a base front | 36% pass success, 2nd-worst | 35% pressure rate, 2nd-best | Chicago |
| Pressure rate | 29% pressure allowed, T-9th-worst | 32% pressure rate, T-2nd-best | Chicago |
| 3rd-and-long conversions | 18%, 4th-worst | 14% allowed, 3rd-best | Chicago |
| Turnovers (since Week 5) | 10 takeaways, 2nd-most | 9 giveaways, 2nd-most | Tampa Bay |
| Runs to the left side | 2.5 yards per carry allowed, best | 3.7 yards per carry, T-6th-worst | Tampa Bay |
| Passes up the middle | 9.1 YPA, T-9th-best | 10.8 allowed, 3rd-worst | Tampa Bay |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 8 unless marked "since Week 5" (the last four weeks of games). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 34 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 21 favor Chicago and 13 favor Tampa Bay.
Where Chicago Has the Edge
3 verified pairsChicago’s base-front pass rush meets a Tampa Bay passing game that struggles against it
CHIThe Bears have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 35% of pass attempts with a base front this season.
TBThe Buccaneers have been successful on 36% of pass attempts against a base front this season.
Chicago: 2nd-best in the NFL · Tampa Bay: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This ties for the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game, and the same-stat comparison points the same way: Chicago has allowed a 42% pass success rate with a base front (7th-best), and Buccaneers quarterbacks have a 75.6 passer rating against base fronts (5th-worst). With a base rush (four rushers), the Bears have pressured quarterbacks on 33% of attempts (2nd-best), and Tampa Bay’s passer rating against a base rush is 71.3 (2nd-worst).
Chicago has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 35% of pass attempts with a base front in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, while Tampa Bay has been successful on 36% of pass attempts against a base front, 2nd-worst.
Data note
The two headline stats measure related but different things: Chicago’s pressure rate and Tampa Bay’s pass success rate. The 42% success-rate-allowed figure is the same-stat comparison. "Base front" and "base rush" are alignments charted by FTN Data. 2026 regular season through Week 8. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN Data).
The Bears get home, and Tampa Bay’s line has struggled to keep pressure off
CHIThe Bears have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 32% of passing plays this season.
TBThe Buccaneers have allowed pressure on 29% of pass attempts this season.
Chicago: T-2nd-best in the NFL · Tampa Bay: T-9th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Pressure has been costly for Tampa Bay: the Buccaneers have been successful on just 16% of pass attempts with their quarterback under pressure (4th-worst). Chicago has 22 sacks (T-6th-most), and Buccaneers quarterbacks have been sacked 23 times (T-2nd-most). The other side of the ball favors Chicago too: the Bears have been successful on 32% of pass attempts under pressure (T-9th-best), and Tampa Bay has pressured quarterbacks on just 21% of passing plays (T-4th-worst).
Chicago has pressured opposing quarterbacks on 32% of passing plays in 2026, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, and Tampa Bay has allowed pressure on 29% of its pass attempts, tied for 9th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: pressures per dropback, from the defense’s and the offense’s point of view. 2026 regular season through Week 8. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
On 3rd and long, Chicago has been one of the hardest defenses to convert against
CHIThe Bears have allowed a 14% conversion rate on 3rd and long this season.
TBThe Buccaneers have converted 18% of their 3rd-and-long chances this season.
Chicago: 3rd-best in the NFL · Tampa Bay: 4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Tampa Bay’s passing game has been successful on 36% of attempts overall (T-worst in the NFL), which tends to leave it in long-yardage spots, and Chicago has allowed a 43% pass success rate (T-8th-best). When drives do get close, the Bears have allowed 4.0 points per red zone drive (T-7th-best) and the Buccaneers have scored 3.9 (T-4th-worst).
Chicago has allowed a 14% conversion rate on 3rd and long in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, and Tampa Bay has converted 18% of its 3rd-and-long chances, 4th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure 3rd-down conversion rate on 3rd and long. 2026 regular season through Week 8. The pass success and red zone figures come from separate Reasons for this game. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Where Tampa Bay Has the Edge
3 verified pairsTampa Bay has been taking the ball away, and Chicago has been giving it up
TBThe Buccaneers have forced 10 turnovers since Week 5.
CHIThe Bears have turned the ball over 9 times since Week 5.
Tampa Bay: 2nd-most in the NFL · Chicago: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Why it matters: This ties for the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. Tampa Bay forced 4 turnovers in Week 8 alone, tied for most in the NFL. In tight coverage, the Buccaneers have allowed a 0.0 passer rating since Week 5 (T-best), while Bears quarterbacks have a 10.8 rating against tight coverage over that span (7th-worst). Over the full season, though, Caleb Williams has an 82.0 rating against tight coverage, best of 34 qualified quarterbacks, so the recent figure rests on a small sample.
Since Week 5 of 2026, Tampa Bay has forced 10 turnovers, 2nd-most in the NFL, and Chicago has turned the ball over 9 times, also 2nd-most.
Data note
"Since Week 5" covers the last four weeks of games, a small sample, and turnovers swing more than most stats. Both sides measure the same thing (takeaways and giveaways). Tight-coverage figures come from FTN Data; the Williams season figure comes from a Remarkable™ 2026 Season note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar and FTN Data).
Chicago’s run game has stalled to the left, where Tampa Bay has been the NFL’s best
TBThe Buccaneers have allowed 2.5 yards per carry on rushes to the left this season.
CHIBears running backs are averaging 3.7 yards per carry on rushes to the left this season.
Tampa Bay: best in the NFL · Chicago: T-6th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: D’Andre Swift is averaging 3.1 yards per carry on 43 runs to the left (5th-worst of 33 qualified running backs), with only 2 of those carries going for 10+ yards. Tampa Bay’s run defense has been strong beyond that side, too: it has allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of its last 6 games, the longest active streak in the NFL, per Remarkable’s latest streak notes, and it stuffed 8 runs in Week 8, most in the league. The counterpoint: Swift has 10 rushing touchdowns on 143 carries this season.
Tampa Bay has allowed 2.5 yards per carry on runs to the left in 2026, best in the NFL, while Chicago’s running backs are averaging 3.7 yards per carry to that side, tied for 6th-worst.
Data note
Run direction is from the offense’s point of view, as charted in the Sportradar feed. Both sides measure yards per carry. 2026 regular season through Week 8. Swift’s figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes; the rushing-yards streak comes from a Remarkable™ streak note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar data).
Tampa Bay’s passing game has found room up the middle, a soft spot for Chicago
TBThe Buccaneers have thrown for 9.1 yards per attempt on passes up the middle this season.
CHIThe Bears have allowed 10.8 yards per dropback on passes up the middle this season.
Tampa Bay: T-9th-best in the NFL · Chicago: 3rd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The last four weeks point the same way: since Week 5, Buccaneers quarterbacks have a 129.2 passer rating against a stacked front (T-4th-best) while Chicago has allowed 149.1 (2nd-worst), and a 118.5 rating against a heavy rush (10th-best) against a Bears defense that has allowed 151.4 (worst in the NFL). It cuts both ways: overall, Tampa Bay’s pass success rate is 36%, tied for worst in the NFL.
Tampa Bay has thrown for 9.1 yards per attempt on passes up the middle in 2026, tied for 9th-best in the NFL, and Chicago has allowed 10.8 yards per dropback on those throws, 3rd-worst.
Data note
Direction is where the pass was thrown, as charted in the Sportradar feed. Both sides measure yards per pass attempt (offense) and per dropback allowed (defense). 2026 regular season through Week 8; the stacked-front and heavy-rush figures cover the last four weeks and come from FTN Data. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, Sportradar and FTN Data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday night, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
Tampa BayThis running back ran for 170 yards on 27 carries in Week 8, for a defense that has held 6 straight opponents under 100 rushing yards, the NFL’s longest active streak.
ChicagoThis running back has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last 3 games and needs just 14.3 carries per rushing TD this season.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Chicago as a 6-point home favorite with a game total of 47.5. No earlier lines were available for this report, so line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 21 to 13 in Chicago’s favor. On yardage, Chicago has allowed 321.4 yards from scrimmage per game (7th-best) and Tampa Bay has gained 316 per game (8th-worst); after halftime, the Bears have allowed 9.5 points per game (T-6th-best) and the Buccaneers have scored 10.0 (T-9th-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
8 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | Rushing yards, 63.5 | Under · 60% | ★★★★★ | Bears haven’t allowed Over to an RB in last 5 | |
| Caleb Williams | Completions, 21.5 | Over · 59% | ★★★★★ | Over in each of his last 3 games | |
| D’Andre Swift | Rushing yards, 65.5 | Under · 59% | ★★★★★ | Bucs allowed Over to an RB in 1 of 8 games | |
| Baker Mayfield | Completions, 18.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | 8.0 per game, last 3 | |
| Bucky Irving | Receiving yards, 13.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Under in each of his last 7 games | |
| Bucky Irving | Receptions, 2.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | 1.0 per game, last 5 | |
| Kenny Gainwell | Receiving yards, 10.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Under in each of his last 4 games | |
| Kenny Gainwell | Receptions, 1.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | 1.2 per game, last 5 |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). The table shows all 8 of this game’s 5-star insights, strongest first; 6 more rate 4 stars (30 insights in all). Small sample: Williams has played 5 of Chicago’s 8 games.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Small samples: Mayfield has played 5 of Tampa Bay’s 8 games, and Jalon Daniels has also thrown passes for Tampa Bay this season, so the Buccaneers’ team passing numbers mix two quarterbacks.
How our Week 8 prop insights did
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear here once they’re published.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 5, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
6 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
Chicago holds the broader statistical edge: 21 of the game’s 34 Inside Edge Reasons favor the Bears, led by a pass rush that has pressured quarterbacks on 35% of pass attempts with a base front (2nd-best in the NFL) against a Tampa Bay passing game that has been successful on 36% of attempts against a base front (2nd-worst). Tampa Bay’s clearest counterweights are its takeaways, its run defense on runs to the left and its passing game up the middle. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Buccaneers at Bears?
The current line has Chicago -6 with a total of 47.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026). Prices may change before kickoff.
What is Tampa Bay’s strongest counterargument?
Tampa Bay has forced 10 turnovers since Week 5, 2nd-most in the NFL, and Chicago has turned the ball over 9 times over the same span, also 2nd-most. Tampa Bay has also allowed just 2.5 yards per carry on runs to the left this season, best in the NFL, against a Chicago running game averaging 3.7 to that side (T-6th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
D’Andre Swift has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last 3 games and has 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Bucky Irving ran for 170 yards on 27 carries in Week 8, and Tampa Bay’s defense has allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each of its last 6 games, the longest active streak in the NFL, per Remarkable’s latest streak notes.
How did Inside Edge’s most recent prop insights do?
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear on this page once they’re published.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only.