Raiders at 49ers: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Las Vegas Raiders (4-4) at San Francisco 49ers (6-1)·
NFL Week 9, Sunday afternoon·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Updated Nov 4, 2026, with Week 9 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 8 of the 2026 season
68 of 85 Reasons favor San Francisco. The 49ers’ offense has the best success rate in the NFL, they score more points per red-zone drive than any team, and their run defense has been among the league’s best against a Raiders ground game that ranks near the bottom. Las Vegas has fewer counters, but they are specific: its running backs as receivers, its starting field position and its play-action passing. The market has San Francisco as a 9.5-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 9 view: San Francisco comes off its bye at 6-1 with the stronger statistical profile: 68 of the game’s 85 Reasons favor the 49ers, led by an offense that has been successful on 53% of its plays this season (best in the NFL) against a Raiders defense that has allowed a 49% success rate (worst). Las Vegas, 4-4 after a 38–33 win at the Jets, has its clearest counterarguments through the air: running backs who catch the ball against a defense that has given up the most receiving yards to backs, and a play-action game that rates 3rd-best in the NFL. The current line has San Francisco -9.5 with a total of 53, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers |
| Competition | NFL, Week 9 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET (FOX) |
| Venue | Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Line | San Francisco -9.5 · Total 53 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 8, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 8
- The passing game was nearly perfect early: Las Vegas ran successful plays on 86% of its 1st-half pass attempts, best in the NFL in Week 8.
- Brock Bowers had 92 receiving yards on 7 catches, 3rd-most yards among NFL tight ends in Week 8, as Raiders tight ends drew 16 targets (most in the NFL).
- Ashton Jeanty had 64 receiving yards, 2nd-most among NFL running backs in Week 8.
- The defense leaked early: Las Vegas allowed 3 touchdowns in the 1st half, tied for the most in the NFL in Week 8.
- San Francisco has run successful plays on 60% of its 1st-half rush attempts this season, best in the NFL.
- Christian McCaffrey has 8 red-zone rushing touchdowns this season, tied for 2nd-most among NFL running backs.
- George Kittle is averaging 60.7 receiving yards per game (425 in 7 games), 3rd-best of 37 qualified NFL tight ends.
- The pass defense gives up completions: opponents have completed 67% of their passes against San Francisco (166 of 248), 3rd-worst in the NFL.
San Francisco had a bye in Week 8, and Remarkable™ has no Last Week notes for the 49ers, so their card shows 2026 Season notes through Week 7 instead.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Raiders at 49ers. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Player Prop
Question 1 of 5
Which running back has a rushing line of 27.5 yards this week and is averaging just 15.3 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games?
He’s been busier as a receiver: 5.0 catches per game over the same 3 games.
The betting spin
Answer: Ashton Jeanty. He’s been under 27.5 rushing yards in each of his last 4 games and over it in just 1 of his last 5, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 60%. The other side: he’s averaging 42.1 rushing yards per game across all 8 games this season. San Francisco has allowed just 89.7 rushing yards per game, 5th-best in the NFL.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 2 of 5
Which running back has a rushing line of 60.5 yards this week, against a defense that has allowed more than 60.5 rushing yards to an opposing running back in each of its last 5 games?
He has rushed for at least one touchdown in each of his last 6 games.
The betting spin
Answer: Christian McCaffrey. The Raiders have allowed 154.2 rushing yards per game to running backs over their last 5 games, and McCaffrey has cleared 60.5 in 4 of his 7 games this season. Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 57%. The caution: he has beaten his carries line in just 2 of 7 games, so the volume isn’t guaranteed.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 3 of 5
Which running back has a carries line of 11.5 this week and is averaging 34.8 rushing yards per game this season, the lowest of any qualified NFL running back?
He had 25 carries in Week 8 but gained 10+ yards on just 1 of them.
The betting spin
Answer: Mike Washington. He has topped 11.5 carries in just 1 of 8 games this season, and he now faces a 49ers defense that has allowed 3.6 yards per carry (tied for 2nd-best). His two prop insights sit close to 50%, so they aren’t in the table; the bigger story is San Francisco’s run defense against a Raiders ground game that has struggled all season.
See the edge ↓ -
Favorable Matchup
Question 4 of 5
Raiders running backs have 53.0 receiving yards per game this season, 2nd-best in the NFL. How many receiving yards per game have the 49ers allowed to running backs, the most in the league?
It’s within 5 yards of what the Raiders’ backs produce.
The betting spin
Answer: 48.0, worst in the NFL. It’s the largest rank gap of any Reason that favors Las Vegas. Ashton Jeanty is averaging 5.0 catches per game over his last 3, and Inside Edge’s insight on his 4.5 receptions line leans Over at 56%. The other side: the 49ers have allowed more than 35.5 receiving yards to any single running back in just 2 of 7 games.
See the edge ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 5 of 5
The Raiders have allowed a 49% success rate on all plays this season, worst in the NFL. On what share of their plays have the 49ers been successful, best in the league?
It’s a little more than half.
The betting spin
Answer: 53%, best in the NFL. It’s one of eight Reasons in this game where San Francisco ranks 1st and Las Vegas ranks 32nd. The 49ers have also been successful on 54% of pass attempts (2nd-best) against a defense that has allowed 52% (tied for worst).
See the edge ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Las Vegas | San Francisco | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall success rate | 49% allowed, worst | 53% of plays, best | San Francisco |
| Red-zone scoring | 5.1 pts per drive allowed, T-2nd-worst | 5.6 pts per drive, best | San Francisco |
| Runs vs. a base rush | 12% success, worst | 27% allowed, T-best | San Francisco |
| RB receiving yards | 53.0 per game, 2nd-best | 48.0 allowed, worst | Las Vegas |
| Average drive start | Own 31.7, 3rd-best | 30.3 allowed, T-6th-worst | Las Vegas |
| Play-action passing | 126.3 rating, 3rd-best | 108.3 allowed, 9th-worst | Las Vegas |
All rows use 2026 regular-season data; San Francisco’s figures run through Week 7 because of its Week 8 bye. Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 85 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 68 favor San Francisco and 17 favor Las Vegas.
Where Las Vegas Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe Raiders’ backs catch the ball, and the 49ers have given up the most receiving yards to backs
LVRaiders running backs have 53.0 receiving yards per game this season.
SFThe 49ers have allowed 48.0 receiving yards per game to running backs this season.
Las Vegas: 2nd-best in the NFL · San Francisco: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap of any Reason that favors Las Vegas. Ashton Jeanty drives it: he had 64 receiving yards in Week 8 (2nd-most among NFL running backs), is averaging 5.0 catches per game over his last 3, and has been targeted 6 or more times in 4 of his last 5. The counterweight: the 49ers have allowed more than 35.5 receiving yards to a single running back in just 2 of 7 games, so the yardage they give up has been spread across backs.
Las Vegas Raiders running backs have 53.0 receiving yards per game in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, while the San Francisco 49ers have allowed 48.0 receiving yards per game to running backs, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure receiving yards per game by running backs (gained and allowed). 2026 regular season; San Francisco’s figures run through Week 7. Jeanty’s Week 8 figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note and the catch, target and single-back figures from this game’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Las Vegas has started drives on a short field, and San Francisco has let opponents do the same
LVThe Raiders’ average drive has started at their own 31.7-yard line this season.
SFThe 49ers have allowed an average drive start at the 30.3-yard line this season.
Las Vegas: 3rd-best in the NFL · San Francisco: T-6th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Field position compounds. Since Week 5, the Raiders have run 53% of their plays in opponent territory (tied for 5th-best), and the 49ers have allowed opponents to run 58% of their plays in San Francisco territory (2nd-worst). In Week 8, Las Vegas ran 60% of its plays in Jets territory, 2nd-best in the NFL. San Francisco’s offense has done even better in that window, though: 55% of its plays in opponent territory (2nd-best) against a Raiders defense that has allowed 60% (worst).
The Las Vegas Raiders’ average drive has started at their own 31.7-yard line in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while the San Francisco 49ers have allowed an average drive start at the 30.3, tied for 6th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure average starting field position (gained and allowed). 2026 regular season. The territory figures cover the last four weeks ("since Week 5"); San Francisco was idle in Week 8, so its sample in that window has one fewer game. The Week 8 figure comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
The Raiders’ play-action passing has been among the NFL’s best
LVRaiders quarterbacks have a 126.3 passer rating on play-action passes this season.
SFThe 49ers have allowed a 108.3 passer rating on play-action passes this season.
Las Vegas: 3rd-best in the NFL · San Francisco: 9th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The success rates agree: Las Vegas has been successful on 60% of play-action pass attempts (tied for 7th-best), and San Francisco has allowed 56% (tied for 7th-worst). Kirk Cousins has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last 12 games and more than 1.5 in 7 of 8 this season. The catch: the 49ers have allowed a 57.4 passer rating when they send a heavy rush (2nd-best), and Raiders quarterbacks have a 79.5 rating against one (8th-worst).
Las Vegas Raiders quarterbacks have a 126.3 passer rating on play-action passes in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while the San Francisco 49ers have allowed a 108.3 rating on play-action passes, 9th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure passer rating on play-action passes, as charted by FTN Data. 2026 regular season; San Francisco’s figures run through Week 7. The Cousins streak comes from a Remarkable™ streak note and his 7-of-8 figure from this game’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
Where San Francisco Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe NFL’s most efficient offense meets its least efficient defense
SFThe 49ers have been successful on 53% of their plays this season.
LVThe Raiders have allowed a 49% success rate on all plays this season.
San Francisco: best in the NFL · Las Vegas: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It shows up in both the passing and running game: San Francisco has been successful on 54% of pass attempts (2nd-best) against a Raiders defense that has allowed 52% (tied for worst), and on 62% of rush attempts since Week 5 (best) against a defense that has allowed 53% over that span (worst). The 49ers have scored 28.1 points per game (4th-best), and the Raiders have allowed 28.8 (2nd-worst).
The San Francisco 49ers have been successful on 53% of their plays in 2026, best in the NFL, while the Las Vegas Raiders have allowed a 49% success rate, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure successful play rate (gained and allowed) across all plays. 2026 regular season; San Francisco’s figures run through Week 7. The rushing figures cover the last four weeks ("since Week 5"), in which San Francisco played one fewer game. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
San Francisco finishes drives, and Las Vegas has struggled to stop teams in the red zone
SFThe 49ers have scored 5.6 points per red-zone drive this season.
LVThe Raiders have allowed 5.1 points per red-zone drive this season.
San Francisco: best in the NFL · Las Vegas: T-2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The touchdown counts line up: San Francisco has 19 red-zone touchdowns (tied for 5th-most), and Las Vegas has allowed 24, the most in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey has 8 red-zone rushing touchdowns, tied for 2nd-most among running backs. The other side: the 49ers’ defense has allowed a 70% completion rate in the red zone (3rd-worst), and the Raiders throw on 53% of their red-zone plays (tied for 7th-highest).
The San Francisco 49ers have scored 5.6 points per red-zone drive in 2026, best in the NFL, while the Las Vegas Raiders have allowed 5.1 points per red-zone drive, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure points per red-zone drive (scored and allowed). 2026 regular season; San Francisco’s figures run through Week 7. McCaffrey’s figure comes from a Remarkable™ 2026 Season note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
The 49ers’ run defense against a Raiders ground game that hasn’t found room
SFThe 49ers have allowed a 27% success rate on rush attempts with a base rush this season.
LVThe Raiders have been successful on 12% of rush attempts against a base rush this season.
San Francisco: T-best in the NFL · Las Vegas: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The broader numbers agree: San Francisco has allowed 3.6 yards per carry (tied for 2nd-best), and Las Vegas is averaging 3.4 (tied for 3rd-worst). Since Week 5, the Raiders have rushed for 248 yards, the fewest in the NFL, while the 49ers have allowed 228 (4th-fewest). Ashton Jeanty is averaging 42.1 rushing yards per game (5th-worst of qualified backs) and Mike Washington 34.8 (worst).
The San Francisco 49ers have allowed a 27% success rate on runs against a base rush in 2026, tied for best in the NFL, and the Las Vegas Raiders have been successful on just 12% of their runs against a base rush, worst in the NFL.
Data note
A "base rush" means the defense sent a standard number of pass rushers on the play, as charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure successful rush rate. 2026 regular season. The yards-per-carry figures are Sportradar data, the rushing-yard totals cover the last four weeks, and the Jeanty and Washington figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data; SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
Las VegasThis tight end has caught 18 consecutive passes thrown his way, the longest active streak.
San FranciscoThis running back has 10+ fantasy points in each of his last 18 games, the longest active streak for NFL running backs.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has San Francisco as a 9.5-point home favorite with a game total of 53. No earlier lines were available for this report, so line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 68 to 17 in San Francisco’s favor. On scoring, the 49ers have scored 28.1 points per game this season (4th-best in the NFL) against a Raiders defense that has allowed 28.8 (2nd-worst), while Las Vegas has scored 16.5 second-half points per game since Week 5 (3rd-best) against a San Francisco defense that has allowed 15.7 in that span (tied for 4th-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
7 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | Passing yards, 245.5 | Over · 63% | ★★★★★ | Raiders allowed 267.8 per game, last 5 | |
| Ashton Jeanty | Rushing yards, 27.5 | Under · 60% | ★★★★★ | Under 27.5 in each of his last 4 | |
| Kirk Cousins | Passing TDs, 1.5 | Over · 60% | ★★★★★ | Over in 7 of 8 games this season | |
| Brock Purdy | Completions, 21.5 | Under · 59% | ★★★★★ | Over in 1 of his last 5 games | |
| Ashton Jeanty | Carries, 8.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Hasn’t beaten his carries line in any of his last 5 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | Rushing yards, 60.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★☆ | Raiders allowed Over to an RB in each of last 5 | |
| Ashton Jeanty | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★☆ | 5.0 catches per game, last 3 |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: San Francisco has played 7 games after its Week 8 bye, so its “last 3” and “last 5” windows run through Week 7.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Jeanty’s carries data cuts both ways: he has topped 8.5 carries in 6 of 8 games this season, but has beaten his posted carries line in just 3 of 8; “beat the Over” is measured against each week’s posted line, not this week’s 8.5. The 3-star and lower insights in this game, including Brock Bowers’s, aren’t shown.
How our Week 8 prop insights did
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear here once they’re published.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 5, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
6 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
San Francisco holds the broader statistical edge: 68 of the 85 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the 49ers, led by an offense that has been successful on 53% of its plays this season (best in the NFL) against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed a 49% success rate (worst). The Raiders’ clearest counterweights are their running backs’ receiving production, their field position and their play-action passing. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Raiders at 49ers?
The current line has San Francisco as a 9.5-point home favorite with a total of 53 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is the Raiders’ strongest counterargument?
Raiders running backs have 53.0 receiving yards per game this season, 2nd-best in the NFL, and the 49ers have allowed 48.0 receiving yards per game to running backs, worst in the NFL. Las Vegas quarterbacks also have a 126.3 passer rating on play-action passes (3rd-best) against a San Francisco defense that has allowed 108.3 (9th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
Ian Thomas has caught 18 consecutive pass attempts, the longest active streak. Christian McCaffrey has 10 or more fantasy points in each of his last 18 games, the longest active streak for NFL running backs.
How did Inside Edge’s most recent prop insights do?
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear on this page once they’re published.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.