Cardinals at Seahawks: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Arizona Cardinals (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)·
NFL Week 9, Sunday afternoon·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Updated Nov 4, 2026, with Week 9 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 8 of the 2026 season
38 of 51 Reasons favor Seattle. The Seahawks’ pass defense ranks at or near the top of the NFL on 3rd down, on 20-yard throws and in yards per dropback, each time against an Arizona passing game near the bottom, and Seattle’s wide receivers lead the league in touchdowns against a defense that has allowed the most to wide receivers. Arizona has fewer counters, but they are specific: its red-zone passing, its defense against pressured quarterbacks, and its light fronts. The market has Seattle as an 11.5-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 9 view: Seattle comes off a 34–17 home loss to Chicago but carries the stronger statistical profile: 38 of the game’s 51 Reasons favor the Seahawks, led by a pass defense that has allowed a 37.8 passer rating on 3rd down (best in the NFL) against Arizona quarterbacks who rate 49.2 on 3rd down (worst). Arizona, fresh off a 33–30 win in Dallas, has its clearest counterarguments in the red zone, where it throws more often than any team against a Seattle defense that has allowed a 79.0% completion rate there, and in how its defense handles pressured quarterbacks. The current line has Seattle -11.5 with a total of 41.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks |
| Competition | NFL, Week 9 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET (FOX) |
| Venue | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Line | Seattle -11.5 · Total 41.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 8, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 8
- Michael Wilson had 111 receiving yards, 6th-most among NFL wide receivers in Week 8, and his 13 first-read targets were the most of any NFL wide receiver.
- Tyler Allgeier averaged 11.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (191 yards on 16 touches), best of 33 qualified NFL running backs in Week 8.
- The run defense held firm: Arizona allowed 2.3 yards per carry to running backs (70 yards on 31 carries), tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, and stuffed 7 running-back runs, tied for the most.
- The passing game sputtered: Jacoby Brissett averaged 5.2 yards per attempt (119 yards on 23 attempts), tied for 4th-worst of 28 qualified QBs, and was sacked 4 times.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 118 receiving yards on 11 targets, 4th-most among NFL wide receivers in Week 8, with 54 yards after the catch.
- No long runs allowed: Seattle didn’t allow a 10-yard run on any of the 32 carries it faced from running backs, tied for best in the NFL.
- First down belonged to the defense: Seattle allowed 5 or more yards on just 24% of 1st-down plays, best in the NFL in Week 8.
- 3rd down was the problem: the Seahawks converted 9% of their 3rd downs, 2nd-worst in the NFL, and ran successful plays on 27% of all snaps, also 2nd-worst.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Cardinals at Seahawks. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Player Prop
Question 1 of 5
Which tight end has a receptions line of 7.5 this week and has been targeted 9 or more times in every game this season?
He has been targeted 86 times this season, the most of any NFL tight end.
The betting spin
Answer: Trey McBride. He’s averaging 8.3 catches per game and has beaten 7.5 in 5 of 8 games this season, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 60%. The other side: Seattle hasn’t allowed more than 7.5 receptions to an opposing tight end in any of its last 5 games, and only once in 8 games this season.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 2 of 5
Arizona quarterbacks have a 49.2 passer rating on 3rd down this season, worst in the NFL. What passer rating has Seattle’s defense allowed on 3rd down?
It’s the best mark in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 37.8, best in the NFL. That pairing is the largest rank gap of any Reason in this game: the NFL’s best 3rd-down pass defense against its worst 3rd-down passing game. Since Week 5, Seattle has also allowed a 38% conversion rate on 3rd and short (3rd-best), while Arizona has converted 50% (tied for 6th-worst).
See the edge ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 3 of 5
Which receiver has a receptions line of 4.5 this week and has been targeted 6 or more times in every game this season?
He had 13 first-read targets in Week 8, the most of any NFL wide receiver.
The betting spin
Answer: Michael Wilson. He’s averaging 5.6 catches per game this season and 5.3 over his last 3, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 56%. The caution: Seattle has allowed 100.4 receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season, fewest in the NFL.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Favorable Matchup
Question 4 of 5
Arizona throws the ball more often in the red zone than any team in the NFL. On what share of its red-zone plays has it passed this season?
It’s more than 6 passes for every 10 red-zone plays.
The betting spin
Answer: 62%, the highest rate in the NFL. It runs straight into Seattle’s soft spot: the Seahawks have allowed a 79.0% completion rate in the red zone (2nd-worst) and first downs on 63% of red-zone pass attempts (worst). Trey McBride’s 19 red-zone targets are the most of any NFL tight end.
See the edge ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 5 of 5
Which quarterback has a completions line of 19.5 this week and hasn’t topped it in any of his last 5 games, averaging 7.4 completions over that span?
He has appeared in 2 games this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Drew Lock. Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 58%. Treat it with care: Lock has just 2 games this season (17.5 completions per game in them), his last-5 average includes games with little playing time, and Sam Darnold also has props posted for this game, so check who starts.
See the prop angles ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Arizona | Seattle | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd-down passing | 49.2 QB rating, worst | 37.8 allowed, best | Seattle |
| 20+ yard completions | 5.0% of attempts, T-worst | 5.0% allowed, T-best | Seattle |
| WR touchdowns | 11 allowed to WRs, T-most | 12 by WRs, most | Seattle |
| Red-zone passing | 62.0% pass rate, highest | 79.0% completions allowed, 2nd-worst | Arizona |
| QB under pressure | 34.5 rating allowed, 8th-best | 31.8 QB rating, 7th-worst | Arizona |
| Plays vs. a light front | 26.0% success allowed, T-3rd-best | 26.0% success, 4th-worst | Arizona |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data. Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 51 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 38 favor Seattle and 13 favor Arizona.
Where Arizona Has the Edge
3 verified pairsArizona throws in the red zone, and red-zone pass defense has been Seattle’s soft spot
ARIThe Cardinals have thrown the ball on 62.0% of their red-zone plays this season.
SEAThe Seahawks have allowed a 79.0% completion rate in the red zone this season.
Arizona: highest in the NFL · Seattle: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap of any Reason that favors Arizona. Seattle has also allowed first downs on 63% of red-zone pass attempts, worst in the NFL, and the Cardinals have the targets to test it: Trey McBride has been targeted 19 times in the red zone (most among NFL tight ends), and Michael Wilson has 8 first-read targets inside the 10-yard line (most among wide receivers). The catch is getting there: Seattle has allowed scores on just 29% of opponent drives this season, 2nd-best in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals have thrown on 62.0% of their red-zone plays in 2026, the highest rate in the NFL, and the Seattle Seahawks have allowed a 79.0% completion rate in the red zone, 2nd-worst.
Data note
The two sides measure related but different things: Arizona’s side is a play-calling tendency (share of red-zone plays that are passes), and Seattle’s is an efficiency figure (completion rate allowed on red-zone passes). 2026 regular season. The 63% first-down figure, the target counts and the 29% scoring-drive figure come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
When Seattle’s quarterback is under pressure, Arizona’s defense has made it count
ARIThe Cardinals have allowed a 34.5 passer rating when the opposing quarterback is under pressure this season.
SEASeahawks quarterbacks have a 31.8 passer rating when under pressure this season.
Arizona: 8th-best in the NFL · Seattle: 7th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Arizona has been getting home lately: it has 11 sacks since Week 5 (tied for 7th-most), and Seattle quarterbacks have been sacked 13 times in that span (tied for 4th-most). The Cardinals have also pressured on 32% of dropbacks against motion since Week 5 (tied for 3rd-best), while Seahawks quarterbacks have a 71.8 passer rating with motion (6th-worst). The counterweight: how Arizona brings pressure matters, because Seattle quarterbacks have a 130.7 rating against a heavy rush this season (4th-best) and Arizona has allowed a 149.2 rating when it sends one (worst).
The Arizona Cardinals have allowed a 34.5 passer rating against pressured quarterbacks in 2026, 8th-best in the NFL, while Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks have a 31.8 rating under pressure, 7th-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure passer rating on dropbacks where the quarterback was under pressure. 2026 regular season; the sack and motion figures cover the last four weeks (since Week 5). Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data; the motion and heavy-rush figures are FTN = FTN Data).
Arizona’s light fronts have held up, and Seattle’s offense has struggled against them
ARIThe Cardinals have allowed a 26.0% success rate on plays against a light front this season.
SEAThe Seahawks have been successful on 26.0% of plays against a light front this season.
Arizona: T-3rd-best in the NFL · Seattle: 4th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It holds through the air, too: Arizona has allowed a 29% success rate on pass attempts with a light front (tied for 5th-best) and pressured on 38% of those dropbacks (5th-best), against a Seattle passing game that succeeds on 26% of its attempts against one (tied for 3rd-worst). On the ground, Seahawks running backs average 1.4 yards after contact per carry (tied for 2nd-worst). It cuts both ways, though: Seattle has been successful on 61% of its play-action passes (tied for 4th-best), and Arizona pressures on just 20% of play-action dropbacks (tied for 4th-worst).
The Arizona Cardinals have allowed a 26.0% success rate on plays against a light front in 2026, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL, and the Seattle Seahawks have been successful on 26.0% of their plays against a light front, 4th-worst.
Data note
A “light front” means the defense had fewer defenders near the line than usual, as charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure successful play rate. A separate Remarkable™ 2026 Season note puts Seattle’s pass success rate against a light front at 22% (2nd-worst); the difference from the Reason’s 26% reflects timing between data runs. 2026 regular season. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data; the yards-after-contact figure is SR = Sportradar data).
Where Seattle Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe NFL’s best 3rd-down pass defense meets its least efficient 3rd-down passing game
SEAThe Seahawks have allowed a 37.8 passer rating on 3rd down this season.
ARICardinals quarterbacks have a 49.2 passer rating on 3rd down this season.
Seattle: best in the NFL · Arizona: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. Seattle has allowed a 32% 3rd-down conversion rate on first-read passes (2nd-best), and since Week 5 it has allowed a 38% conversion rate on 3rd and short (3rd-best) against an Arizona offense that has converted 50% (tied for 6th-worst). The caveat: Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew both appear in Arizona’s Week 8 notes, so the Cardinals’ season passing figures may blend more than one quarterback.
The Seattle Seahawks have allowed a 37.8 passer rating on 3rd down in 2026, best in the NFL, while Arizona Cardinals quarterbacks have a 49.2 passer rating on 3rd down, worst.
Data note
Both sides measure passer rating on 3rd-down dropbacks. 2026 regular season; a Remarkable™ 2026 Season note puts Seattle’s sample at 75 3rd-down pass attempts. The 3rd-and-short figures cover the last four weeks (since Week 5), and the first-read figure comes from a 2026 Season note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Arizona’s passing game rarely gets downfield, and Seattle rarely allows it
SEAThe Seahawks have allowed 20+ yard completions on 5.0% of opponent pass attempts this season.
ARIThe Cardinals have thrown for 20+ yards on 5.0% of their pass attempts this season.
Seattle: T-best in the NFL · Arizona: T-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: The same pattern holds on every throw: Seattle has allowed 5.1 yards per dropback (best in the NFL) against an Arizona offense averaging 5.8 yards per attempt (tied for 3rd-worst), and the Seahawks have allowed just 156.0 passing yards per game (2nd-best). In the prop market, Seattle has allowed more than 201.5 passing yards in just 1 of 8 games. The counterweight is the red zone, where Seattle’s pass defense has been far more vulnerable (see Arizona’s edges above).
The Seattle Seahawks have allowed 20+ yard completions on 5.0% of opponent pass attempts in 2026, tied for best in the NFL, and the Arizona Cardinals have completed 20+ yard passes on 5.0% of their attempts, tied for worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the share of pass attempts that gained 20 or more yards. Separate Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes put Arizona at 5.2% (17 of 329 attempts, 2nd-worst) and Seattle at 4.9% (tied for best); the small difference reflects rounding and timing between data runs. The 201.5-yard figure comes from this game’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Seattle’s receivers find the end zone, and Arizona has allowed the most wide-receiver touchdowns
SEASeahawks wide receivers have 12 receiving touchdowns this season.
ARIThe Cardinals have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
Seattle: most in the NFL · Arizona: T-most in the NFL.
Why it matters: Jaxon Smith-Njigba accounts for much of it with 9 touchdowns, the most of any NFL wide receiver. Arizona has allowed 7 of its wide-receiver touchdowns in the 1st half (most in the NFL) and 5.8 yards after the catch per wide-receiver reception (worst). The other side: the Cardinals haven’t allowed a passing touchdown in any of their last 15 drives, and no wide receiver has topped 100.5 receiving yards against them in any of their last 3 games.
Seattle Seahawks wide receivers have 12 receiving touchdowns in 2026, the most in the NFL, and the Arizona Cardinals have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, tied for the most.
Data note
Both sides measure receiving touchdowns by wide receivers. 2026 regular season. Smith-Njigba’s total, the 1st-half and yards-after-catch figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes; the 15-drive figure from a streak note; and the 100.5-yard figure from this game’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
ArizonaThis tight end has scored 6+ fantasy points in each of his last 27 games, the longest active streak among NFL tight ends.
SeattleThis wide receiver has 9+ fantasy points and 5+ catches in each of his last 8 games, and 10+ targets in each of his last 3.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Seattle as an 11.5-point home favorite with a game total of 41.5. No earlier lines were available for this report, so line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 38 to 13 in Seattle’s favor. On scoring, Seattle has scored 14.1 points per game in the 2nd half this season (7th-best in the NFL) against an Arizona defense that has allowed 16.0 (2nd-worst), while Seattle’s defense has allowed scores on 29% of opponent drives (2nd-best) and Arizona has scored on 34% of its 1st-half drives (tied for 9th-worst). Seattle has also scored on just 15% of its 1st-quarter drives (3rd-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
8 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Higgins | Receptions, 1.5 | Over · 63% | ★★★★★ | Over in 4 of 5 games this season | |
| Trey McBride | Receptions, 7.5 | Over · 60% | ★★★★★ | 9+ targets in every game this season | |
| Drew Lock | Completions, 19.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Under 19.5 in each of his last 5 | |
| Drew Lock | Passing TDs, 1.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Over in 1 of his last 5 games | |
| Gardner Minshew | Passing yards, 201.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Seahawks allowed Over in 1 of 8 games | |
| Sam Darnold | Rushing yards, 5.5 | Over · 58% | ★★★★★ | Over in each of his last 3 games | |
| Gardner Minshew | Completions, 20.5 | Under · 57% | ★★★★☆ | Under 20.5 in each of his last 5 | |
| Michael Wilson | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★☆ | 6+ targets in every game this season |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played. Higgins’s 4-of-5 record covers the 5 games graded for that line, fewer than the 7 games in his season averages.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Small samples: Minshew has 1 game this season and Lock 2, and their last-5 averages include games with little or no playing time. Props are posted for two Seattle quarterbacks (Darnold, 7 games; Lock), and Jacoby Brissett also played for Arizona in Week 8 with no props posted, so check the starters before kickoff.
How our Week 8 prop insights did
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear here once they’re published.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 5, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
6 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
Seattle holds the broader statistical edge: 38 of the game’s 51 Inside Edge Reasons favor the Seahawks, led by a pass defense that has allowed a 37.8 passer rating on 3rd down (best in the NFL) against Arizona quarterbacks who have a 49.2 rating on 3rd down (worst). The Cardinals’ clearest counterweights are their red-zone passing and their defense against pressured quarterbacks. This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Cardinals at Seahawks?
The current line has Seattle as an 11.5-point home favorite with a total of 41.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is the Cardinals’ strongest counterargument?
Arizona has thrown the ball on 62.0% of its red-zone plays this season, the highest rate in the NFL, and Seattle has allowed a 79.0% completion rate in the red zone, 2nd-worst. The Cardinals have also allowed a 34.5 passer rating when the opposing quarterback is under pressure (8th-best), against Seahawks quarterbacks who have a 31.8 rating under pressure (7th-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
Trey McBride has 6 or more fantasy points in each of his last 27 games, the longest active streak among NFL tight ends. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 9 or more fantasy points and 5 or more receptions in each of his last 8 games.
How did Inside Edge’s most recent prop insights do?
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear on this page once they’re published.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.