Jaguars at Ravens: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Jacksonville Jaguars (5–2) at Baltimore Ravens (4–4)·
NFL Week 9, Thursday Night Football·
Kickoff Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Updated Nov 4, 2026, with Week 9 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 8 of the 2026 season
48 of 57 Reasons favor Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ defense ranks near the top of the NFL on 3rd and short, where Baltimore’s offense ranks near the bottom, and Jacksonville’s passing game has been the NFL’s best against light fronts. Baltimore’s counters are real but narrower: its home passing game meets the NFL’s worst road pass defense, its defense has forced 4th-quarter three-and-outs, and its run defense ranks 3rd against a base rush. The market has Jacksonville as a 10-point road favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 9 view: Jacksonville enters Thursday night with the stronger statistical profile: 48 of the game’s 57 Reasons favor the Jaguars, led by a defense that has allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short (2nd-best in the NFL) against a Baltimore offense that converts 48% (tied for 2nd-worst). Baltimore’s clearest counterarguments are its home passing numbers against the NFL’s worst road pass defense, though those season figures cover all of its quarterbacks; Joe Fagnano, the Ravens quarterback in this week’s prop insights, has played 1 game this season. The current line has Jacksonville -10 with a total of 40.5, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens |
| Competition | NFL, Week 9 (Thursday Night Football) |
| Kickoff | Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video |
| Venue | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Records | Jacksonville 5–2 · Baltimore 4–4 |
| Line | Jacksonville -10 · Total 40.5 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 8, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 8
- Trevor Lawrence posted a 153.3 passer rating on 14 attempts, best of 28 qualified QBs in Week 8, at 15.0 yards per attempt (also best).
- Bhayshul Tuten averaged 8.8 yards per touch (159 yards on 18 touches), 2nd-best of 33 qualified RBs, including 55 receiving yards, 5th-most among NFL running backs.
- The pass defense allowed just 7.2 yards per completion (152 on 21), best in the NFL, and no receptions of 20+ yards.
- The run defense gave up chunk plays: 10+ yard runs on 4 of 19 running back carries (21%), 2nd-worst in the NFL in Week 8.
- Derrick Henry wasn’t stuffed on any of his 11 carries, tied for best among NFL running backs, and Ravens backs were stuffed on just 6% of runs (1 of 16), 3rd-best.
- The run game worked early: Baltimore ran successful plays on 50% of rush attempts in the 1st half, tied for 3rd-best in the NFL.
- Justice Hill was targeted 8 times, tied for 2nd-most among NFL running backs, and Ravens backs drew 5 targets on 3rd down, most in the league.
- The passing game stalled: Joe Fagnano averaged 4.3 yards per attempt (91 on 21), worst of 28 qualified QBs, and Baltimore allowed pressure on 46% of pass attempts, worst in the NFL.
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Jaguars at Ravens. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Favorable Matchup
Question 1 of 5
Which running back has a rushing line of 69.5 yards this week and is averaging 52.0 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games?
He’s averaging 79.0 rushing yards per game this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Derrick Henry. He hasn’t topped 69.5 rushing yards in any of his last 3 games, and Jacksonville hasn’t allowed more than 69.5 to an opposing running back in any of its 7 games this season (57.7 RB rushing yards per game allowed). Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 57%. His 79.0-yard season average is the counterpoint.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Key Insight
Question 2 of 5
On 3rd and short this season, what conversion rate has Jacksonville’s defense allowed?
It ranks 2nd-best in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 36%, 2nd-best in the NFL. Baltimore has converted 48% of its 3rd-and-short plays this season, tied for 2nd-worst, one of the largest current-season rank gaps of any Reason in this game.
See the edge ↓ -
Player Prop
Question 3 of 5
Which running back has a receptions line of 1.5 this week and has been targeted 3 or more times in each of his last 5 games?
He had 55 receiving yards in Week 8, 5th-most among NFL running backs.
The betting spin
Answer: Bhayshul Tuten. He’s averaging 2.7 catches over his last 3 games and has cleared 1.5 in 5 of 7 this season, with 3+ targets in 6 of 7. Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 57%. Justice Hill’s receptions line is 2.5, and Chris Rodriguez has no receptions line this week.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 4 of 5
Baltimore has thrown for 272.7 passing yards per game at home this season, 7th-best in the NFL. How many passing yards per game has Jacksonville allowed on the road?
It ranks last in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 351.0, worst in the NFL. It’s Baltimore’s clearest passing edge on paper, though Baltimore’s home figure covers just 3 games. The caveat: the Ravens’ season numbers cover all of their quarterbacks, and Joe Fagnano averaged 4.3 yards per attempt in Week 8, worst of 28 qualified QBs.
See the edge ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 5 of 5
Which receiver has a receptions line of 4.5 this week and has been targeted 6 or more times in every game he’s played this season?
He’s averaging 5.7 receptions per game this season.
The betting spin
Answer: Zay Flowers. He has cleared 4.5 catches in 5 of 7 games, averages 6.0 over his last 5, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 57%. His last 3 games have been a little lighter, at 4.7 per game.
See the prop angles ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Jacksonville | Baltimore | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd-and-short conversions | 36% allowed, 2nd-best | 48% converted, T-2nd-worst | Jacksonville |
| Passing vs. a light front | 136.1 rating, best | 104.6 allowed, 5th-worst | Jacksonville |
| Passes up the middle | 9.7 YPA, 5th-best | 9.0 allowed, T-7th-worst | Jacksonville |
| Run success vs. a base rush | 33% successful, T-6th-worst | 28% allowed, 3rd-best | Baltimore |
| Home passing vs. road pass defense | 351.0 YPG allowed on the road, worst | 272.7 YPG at home, 7th-best | Baltimore |
| 4th-quarter three-and-outs | 24% of drives, 2nd-worst | 20% forced, T-7th-best | Baltimore |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 8. Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 57 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 48 favor Jacksonville and 9 favor Baltimore.
Where Jacksonville Has the Edge
3 verified pairsJacksonville’s short-yardage defense meets one of the NFL’s least reliable 3rd-and-short offenses
JAXThe Jaguars have allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season.
BALThe Ravens have converted 48% of their 3rd-and-short plays this season.
Jacksonville: 2nd-best in the NFL · Baltimore: T-2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest current-season rank gap in the game, and it fits a broader pattern of the Ravens struggling to sustain drives. Since Week 5, Baltimore has run just 37% of its plays in opponent territory (tied for worst) while Jacksonville has allowed opponents 37% (best), the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. Over the same stretch, the Ravens have scored on 28% of drives (T-3rd-worst) and allowed pressure on 36% of dropbacks (2nd-worst), against a Jaguars defense that pressures on 26% (T-10th-best).
Jacksonville’s defense has allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short in 2026, 2nd-best in the NFL, while Baltimore’s offense has converted 48% of its 3rd-and-short plays, tied for 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: 3rd-down conversion rate on 3rd and short (offense converted, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 8. "Since Week 5" figures cover the last four weeks of games, in which Jacksonville played 3 games. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Against a light front, Jacksonville has been the NFL’s best passing team
JAXJaguars quarterbacks have a 136.1 passer rating against a light front this season.
BALThe Ravens have allowed a 104.6 passer rating when playing a light front this season.
Jacksonville: best in the NFL · Baltimore: 5th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: A light front puts fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage, usually to add help in coverage, and Jacksonville has punished it. The recent form points the same way: since Week 5, the Jaguars have thrown for 8.8 yards per attempt (T-2nd-best) against a Baltimore defense that has allowed 7.7 (T-4th-worst), and 10.8 on 1st down (2nd-best) against 8.9 allowed (T-3rd-worst). Trevor Lawrence’s 153.3 passer rating in Week 8 was the best of any qualified quarterback.
Jacksonville’s quarterbacks have a 136.1 passer rating against light fronts in 2026, best in the NFL, while Baltimore has allowed a 104.6 rating when using a light front, 5th-worst.
Data note
"Light front" is a defensive alignment with fewer defenders in the box, as charted by FTN Data. 2026 regular season through Week 8. The since-Week 5 yards-per-attempt figures come from separate Sportradar Reasons for this game, and the Week 8 rating from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
Jacksonville’s passing game has hit up the middle, a soft spot in Baltimore’s coverage
JAXThe Jaguars have thrown for 9.7 yards per attempt on passes up the middle this season.
BALThe Ravens have allowed 9.0 yards per dropback on passes up the middle this season.
Jacksonville: 5th-best in the NFL · Baltimore: T-7th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It isn’t only the middle. Jacksonville has thrown for 8.4 yards per attempt to the left (T-3rd-best) against a Ravens defense that has allowed 7.8 there (T-8th-worst), and the Jaguars’ passes have been successful 52% of the time this season (4th-best) against a Baltimore defense that has allowed a 48% success rate (10th-worst). The counterpoint: the Jaguars threw on just 32% of their plays in Week 8, 2nd-lowest in the NFL, so volume depends on game script.
Jacksonville has thrown for 9.7 yards per attempt on passes up the middle in 2026, 5th-best in the NFL, and Baltimore has allowed 9.0 yards per dropback on those throws, tied for 7th-worst.
Data note
Direction is where the pass was thrown, as charted in the Sportradar feed. Both sides measure yards per pass attempt (offense) and per dropback allowed (defense). 2026 regular season through Week 8. The Week 8 pass rate comes from a Remarkable™ Last Week note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Where Baltimore Has the Edge
3 verified pairsBaltimore’s run defense has been one of the NFL’s stingiest against a base rush, where Jacksonville’s ground game has struggled
BALThe Ravens have allowed a 28% success rate on rush attempts against a base rush this season.
JAXThe Jaguars have been successful on 33% of rush attempts against a base rush this season.
Baltimore: 3rd-best in the NFL · Jacksonville: T-6th-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: It matters for a Jaguars offense that ran on 62% of its plays in Week 8 (2nd-highest in the NFL). Since Week 5, Baltimore has allowed a 40% success rate against a stacked front (T-8th-best), where Jacksonville has been successful on just 23% of its plays (worst), and 3.3 yards per carry on runs to the left (7th-best), where Jacksonville’s backs average 3.3 (10th-worst). The counterpoint: Bhayshul Tuten averaged 8.8 yards per touch in Week 8.
Baltimore has allowed a 28% success rate on rush attempts against a base rush in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while Jacksonville has been successful on 33% of its rush attempts against a base rush, tied for 6th-worst.
Data note
"Base rush" is FTN Data’s charting of plays where the defense rushes its standard number of players, without an added blitz. Both sides measure rushing success rate (offense achieved, defense allowed). 2026 regular season through Week 8; the stacked-front and run-direction figures cover the last four weeks, and the stacked-front pair measures success on all plays, not only runs. The Week 8 figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data and SR = Sportradar data).
At home, Baltimore’s passing game meets the NFL’s weakest road pass defense
BALThe Ravens have thrown for 272.7 passing yards per game in 3 home games this season.
JAXThe Jaguars have allowed 351.0 passing yards per game on the road this season.
Baltimore: 7th-best in the NFL · Jacksonville: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap among the Reasons that favor Baltimore, and it shows up in rate stats too: the Ravens average 7.8 yards per attempt this season (8th-best) and Jacksonville has allowed 7.3 (7th-worst). The big caveat is who’s throwing: these season numbers cover all of Baltimore’s quarterbacks, and since Week 5 the Ravens have thrown for just 5.4 yards per attempt on early downs (3rd-worst).
Baltimore has thrown for 272.7 passing yards per game at home in 2026, 7th-best in the NFL, and Jacksonville has allowed 351.0 passing yards per game on the road, worst in the NFL.
Data note
Both sides measure passing yards per game, split by venue: Baltimore’s offense at home and Jacksonville’s defense on the road. These are small samples (3 Baltimore home games, 818 passing yards). 2026 regular season through Week 8. The early-down figure covers the last four weeks and comes from a Reason that favors Jacksonville. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Baltimore’s defense has closed games with three-and-outs, and Jacksonville’s offense has stalled late
BALThe Ravens have forced three-and-outs on 20% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season.
JAXThe Jaguars have gone three-and-out on 24% of their 4th-quarter drives this season.
Baltimore: T-7th-best in the NFL · Jacksonville: 2nd-worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: Jacksonville has scored on 45% of its drives this season (6th-best), but it has stalled late in games, and Baltimore’s defense has been at its best there. Since Week 5, Ravens quarterbacks also have a 97.9 rating on 3rd down (8th-best) against a Jaguars defense that has allowed 142.0 (worst). It cuts both ways, though: Joe Fagnano, the Ravens quarterback in this week’s prop insights, has played 1 game this season and posted a 40.0 passer rating in Week 8, 2nd-worst of 28 qualified QBs.
Baltimore’s defense has forced three-and-outs on 20% of 4th-quarter drives in 2026, tied for 7th-best in the NFL, while Jacksonville has gone three-and-out on 24% of its 4th-quarter drives, 2nd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the same stat: three-and-out rate on 4th-quarter drives (offense gone, defense forced). 2026 regular season through Week 8; the 3rd-down figures cover the last four weeks. The Fagnano figures come from a Remarkable™ Last Week note and this week’s prop insights. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Thursday night, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
JacksonvilleThis quarterback has thrown 2 or more touchdown passes in each of his last 3 games, and his Week 8 passer rating was the best of any qualified NFL quarterback.
BaltimoreThis receiver has been targeted 6 or more times in every game he’s played this season, 7 for 7.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has Jacksonville as a 10-point road favorite with a game total of 40.5. Line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count points the same way as the spread, 48 to 9 in Jacksonville’s favor. On scoring since Week 5, Jacksonville has averaged 30.7 points per game (3rd-best) and allowed 19.3 (8th-best), while Baltimore has scored 15.8 (5th-worst) and allowed 26.8 (8th-worst). These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
8 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Strange | Receptions, 3.5 | Over · 63% | ★★★★★ | 4.7 per game, last 3 | |
| Parker Washington | Receptions, 4.5 | Under · 63% | ★★★★★ | 3.0 per game, last 5 | |
| Chris Rodriguez | Rushing attempts, 7.5 | Under · 62% | ★★★★★ | Over 7.5 carries in just 2 of 7 games | |
| Trevor Lawrence | Passing TDs, 1.5 | Over · 60% | ★★★★★ | Over in each of his last 3 games | |
| Mark Andrews | Receptions, 2.5 | Over · 58% | ★★★★★ | 4+ targets in every game (8) | |
| Derrick Henry | Rushing yards, 69.5 | Under · 57% | ★★★★ | Jaguars haven’t allowed Over to an RB in 7 games | |
| Zay Flowers | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | 6+ targets in every game (7) | |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Receptions, 1.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | 3+ targets in each of his last 5 |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Small samples: Joe Fagnano, the Ravens quarterback in this week’s prop insights, has played 1 game this season (10.0 completions, no touchdown passes), and Zay Flowers has played 7 of Baltimore’s 8 games.
How our Week 8 prop insights did
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear here once they’re published.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 5, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
6 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile in Jaguars at Ravens?
Jacksonville holds the broader statistical edge: 48 of the 57 Inside Edge Reasons for this game favor the Jaguars, led by a defense that has allowed a 36% conversion rate on 3rd and short this season (2nd-best in the NFL) against a Baltimore offense that converts 48% (tied for 2nd-worst), and a passing game with a 136.1 passer rating against light fronts (best in the NFL). Baltimore’s clearest counters are its passing game at home, where it has thrown for 272.7 yards per game against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 351.0 on the road (worst in the NFL), a defense that forces 4th-quarter three-and-outs, and a run defense that has allowed a 28% success rate against a base rush (3rd-best). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Jaguars at Ravens?
The current line has Jacksonville as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 40.5 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026). These are external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast, and they may change before kickoff.
What is Baltimore’s strongest counterargument?
Baltimore has thrown for 272.7 passing yards per game in 3 home games this season, 7th-best in the NFL, and Jacksonville has allowed 351.0 passing yards per game on the road, worst in the NFL. Baltimore’s defense has also forced three-and-outs on 20% of 4th-quarter drives (tied for 7th-best) against a Jacksonville offense that has gone three-and-out on 24% of its 4th-quarter drives (2nd-worst). The passing figures cover all of Baltimore’s quarterbacks; Joe Fagnano, the Ravens quarterback in this week’s prop insights, has played 1 game this season.
Who are the Blazing Performers for Jaguars at Ravens?
Trevor Lawrence has thrown more than 1.5 touchdown passes in each of his last 3 games, averaging 3.0 per game, and posted a 153.3 passer rating in Week 8, best of 28 qualified NFL quarterbacks. Zay Flowers has been targeted 6 or more times in every game he has played this season (7 games) and is averaging 5.7 receptions per game.
How did Inside Edge’s most recent player prop insights perform?
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear on this page once they’re published.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial or betting advice, and it does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only; Inside Edge does not set or influence it.