Packers at Patriots: Matchup Edges, Statistical Evidence and Market Context
Green Bay Packers (5-3) at New England Patriots (5-3)·
NFL Week 9, Sunday afternoon·
Kickoff Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Updated Nov 4, 2026, with Week 9 Reasons·
By Inside Edge Editorial·
Data through Week 8 of the 2026 season
22 of 43 Reasons favor Green Bay, about as close as a split gets. The Packers’ Reasons are concentrated in the passing game and in takeaways: the NFL leader in forced turnovers meets an offense with the 3rd-most giveaways, and a passing game that leads the league up the middle meets a defense that ranks 4th-worst there. New England’s 21 Reasons rest on a run defense that has smothered opponents since Week 5, facing a Packers ground game that ranks last over that stretch, plus an offense that rarely goes three-and-out. The market has New England as a 3-point home favorite. Both sides are shown below with sample, ranking and source context.
Inside Edge’s Week 9 view: This one is close on paper: 22 of the game’s 43 Reasons favor Green Bay and 21 favor New England. The Patriots’ strongest evidence is on the ground, where they have allowed 3.4 yards per carry since Week 5 (tied for 2nd-best in the NFL) and the Packers’ running backs have averaged 2.4 (worst). Green Bay counters through the air and on turnovers: its passing game has thrown for 11.0 yards per attempt up the middle (tied for best), and its defense has forced a league-high 16 turnovers. The current line has New England -3 with a total of 47, shown later in this report as external market context, not an Inside Edge forecast.
| Matchup | Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots |
| Competition | NFL, Week 9 |
| Kickoff | Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ET (FOX) |
| Venue | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Records | Green Bay 5-3 · New England 5-3 |
| Line | New England -3 · Total 47 |
| Analysis status | Pregame; subject to change |
| Data through | Week 8, 2026 NFL regular season |
What Stood Out Last Week
Week 8
- Jordan Love attempted 41 passes, tied for 2nd-most among NFL quarterbacks, and the Packers weren’t sacked on any of them (tied for best in the NFL).
- Green Bay’s wide receivers had 213 receiving yards (3rd-most in the NFL) on 17 catches and 26 targets. Christian Watson had 8 receptions and Matthew Golden 7.
- The defense allowed first downs on just 20% of plays, 3rd-best in the NFL, and gave up only 9.1 yards per completion (also 3rd-best).
- The run game stalled: Packers running backs averaged 1.9 yards per carry (48 yards on 25 carries), worst in the NFL, and Josh Jacobs ran for 39 yards on 21 carries, worst of 30 qualified RBs.
- Drake Maye posted a 141.5 passer rating on 20 attempts, 2nd-best of 28 qualified QBs, at 10.0 yards per attempt (also 2nd-best).
- The defense forced three-and-outs on 40% of drives, best in the NFL, and added 5 sacks (tied for 3rd-most).
- Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t stuffed on any of his 19 carries (tied for best among NFL RBs), and the defense held opponents to 74 rushing yards (4th-fewest).
- Wide receivers found room: New England allowed 17 receptions to WRs (tied for 2nd-most) and 2 WR touchdown catches (tied for 2nd-most), and opponents converted 50% of 3rd downs (tied for 4th-worst).
Spot the Angle
Real Remarkable™ insights on Packers at Patriots. Pick an answer to reveal the betting spin.
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Key Insight
Question 1 of 5
Since Week 5, how many yards per carry are Green Bay’s running backs averaging?
It ranks last in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 2.4, worst in the NFL. New England has allowed 3.4 yards per carry over the same stretch, tied for 2nd-best, the largest rank gap of any Reason in this game. On 1st down the gap is starker still: 1.8 yards per carry for Green Bay’s backs (worst) against 3.2 allowed (tied for 4th-best).
See the edge ↓ -
Player Prop
Question 2 of 5
Which running back has a rushing line of 43.5 yards this week and is averaging 33.8 rushing yards per game over his last 5 games?
He ran for 39 yards on 21 carries in Week 8.
The betting spin
Answer: Josh Jacobs. He has topped 43.5 rushing yards in just 1 of his last 5 games, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Under at 59%. The other side: New England has allowed more than 43.5 to an opposing back in each of its last 3 games. Small sample: he has played 2 games this season, so his last-5 figures reach back before 2026.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Matchup Watch
Question 3 of 5
Green Bay has thrown for 11.0 yards per attempt on passes up the middle this season, tied for best in the NFL. How many yards per dropback has New England allowed on those throws?
It ranks 4th-worst in the NFL.
The betting spin
Answer: 10.5, 4th-worst. It’s Green Bay’s largest passing edge in the game. New England has also allowed 0.37 expected points added per pass play up the middle this season, tied for 4th-worst.
See the edge ↓ -
Hot Streak
Question 4 of 5
Which Packers pass catcher has a receptions line of 4.5 this week and has been targeted 6 or more times in each of his last 5 games?
He had 6 receptions in Week 8, 5th-most among NFL tight ends.
The betting spin
Answer: Tucker Kraft. He’s averaging 5.2 receptions over his last 5 games and has 6+ fantasy points in each of them. Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 62%, the highest-rated insight in this game. Watson shares the 4.5 line but was targeted 6+ times in 4 of his last 5; Golden’s line is 5.5.
See the prop angles ↓ -
Favorable Matchup
Question 5 of 5
Which quarterback has a completions line of 20.5 this week and is averaging 21.2 completions per game over his last 5 games?
He posted a 141.5 passer rating in Week 8, 2nd-best of 28 qualified QBs.
The betting spin
Answer: Drake Maye. Green Bay has allowed 26.3 completions per game over its last 3 games and 24.2 over its last 5, and Inside Edge’s insight leans Over at 58%. One caution: New England threw on just 34% of its plays in Week 8, 3rd-lowest in the NFL.
See the prop angles ↓
Key Findings
At a glance| Topic | Green Bay | New England | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing (since Week 5) | RBs 2.4 yards per carry, worst | 3.4 allowed, T-2nd-best | New England |
| Three-and-outs | Forced on 16% of drives, T-3rd-worst | 14% of drives, T-4th-best | New England |
| 4th-quarter passing | 59.7 rating, 3rd-worst | 87.6 allowed, 9th-best | New England |
| Turnovers | 16 forced, most | 15 giveaways, T-3rd-most | Green Bay |
| Passes up the middle | 11.0 YPA, T-best | 10.5 allowed, 4th-worst | Green Bay |
| Passing vs. a stacked front | 134.5 rating, 3rd-best | 121.3 allowed, 6th-worst | Green Bay |
Rows use 2026 regular-season data through Week 8 unless marked "since Week 5" (the last four weeks of games). Rankings are among all 32 NFL teams. Of the 43 Inside Edge Reasons generated for this game, 22 favor Green Bay and 21 favor New England.
Where New England Has the Edge
3 verified pairsGreen Bay’s stalled ground game meets one of the NFL’s stingiest run defenses lately
NEThe Patriots have allowed 3.4 yards per carry since Week 5.
GBPackers running backs are averaging 2.4 yards per carry since Week 5.
New England: T-2nd-best in the NFL · Green Bay: worst in the NFL.
Why it matters: This is the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game, and it holds up when the numbers are split: on runs to the right since Week 5, New England has allowed 2.6 yards per carry (best) and Green Bay’s backs have averaged 2.5 (T-2nd-worst); on 1st down, it’s 3.2 allowed (T-4th-best) against 1.8 (worst). Over the full season, the Packers have been successful on 20% of runs against a base rush (2nd-worst), against a Patriots defense that has allowed 31% (T-5th-best), and New England hasn’t allowed a 20+ yard run on any of the 190 carries against it (tied for best).
Since Week 5 of 2026, New England has allowed 3.4 yards per carry, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, while Green Bay’s running backs have averaged 2.4 yards per carry, worst in the NFL.
Data note
"Since Week 5" covers the last four weeks of games. The two sides measure related but not identical things: New England’s figure covers all rushes against it, while Green Bay’s covers running back carries only. The base-rush success rates are charted by FTN Data, and the 20+ yard run figure comes from a Remarkable™ 2026 Season team note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar and FTN data).
New England’s offense keeps drives alive, and Green Bay rarely gets a quick stop
NEThe Patriots have gone three-and-out on 14% of their drives this season.
GBThe Packers have forced three-and-outs on 16% of opponent drives this season.
New England: T-4th-best in the NFL · Green Bay: T-3rd-worst.
Why it matters: The same stat points New England’s way when the roles flip: the Patriots’ defense has forced three-and-outs on 25% of drives (T-5th-best), and Green Bay’s offense has gone three-and-out on 26% (T-8th-worst). Week 8 fit the pattern, with New England’s defense forcing three-and-outs on 40% of Miami’s drives (best in the NFL) and its offense going three-and-out on just 9% (2nd-best).
New England has gone three-and-out on 14% of its drives in 2026, tied for 4th-best in the NFL, while Green Bay’s defense has forced three-and-outs on 16% of opponent drives, tied for 3rd-worst.
Data note
Both sides measure the share of drives ending in a three-and-out, from the offense’s and the defense’s view. 2026 regular season through Week 8. The Week 8 figures come from Remarkable™ Last Week notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
The fourth quarter has tilted toward New England on both sides of the ball
NEThe Patriots have allowed an 87.6 passer rating in the 4th quarter this season.
GBPackers quarterbacks have a 59.7 passer rating in the 4th quarter this season.
New England: 9th-best in the NFL · Green Bay: 3rd-worst.
Why it matters: Green Bay leans hardest on the pass late, throwing on 66% of its 4th-quarter plays (highest in the NFL). The Patriots’ offense has gone three-and-out on just 8% of 4th-quarter drives (T-6th-best), and the Packers have forced 4th-quarter three-and-outs on 3% (worst). The counterpoint: New England has run successful plays on only 39% of 4th-quarter snaps (4th-worst) and has allowed a 48% 3rd-down conversion rate in the 4th quarter (5th-worst).
Green Bay’s quarterbacks have a 59.7 passer rating in the 4th quarter in 2026, 3rd-worst in the NFL, and New England has allowed an 87.6 rating in the 4th quarter, 9th-best.
Data note
Both sides measure passer rating in the 4th quarter. 2026 regular season through Week 8. The pass-rate, success-rate and 3rd-down figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season team notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Where Green Bay Has the Edge
3 verified pairsThe NFL’s top takeaway defense meets a turnover-prone New England offense
GBThe Packers have forced 16 turnovers this season.
NEThe Patriots have turned the ball over 15 times this season.
Green Bay: most in the NFL · New England: T-3rd-most.
Why it matters: New England has committed at least one turnover in all 8 of its games, the most in the NFL. Drake Maye has thrown 8 interceptions (T-4th-most among qualified QBs) and fumbled 6 times (T-4th-most among QBs), while Green Bay has intercepted 10 passes (2nd-most) and picked off at least one in 6 games. Maye’s red-zone passing is another pressure point: a 62.1 rating there (worst among qualified QBs) against a Packers defense that has allowed 76.7 in the red zone (3rd-best).
Green Bay has forced 16 turnovers in 2026, most in the NFL, and New England has committed 15 turnovers, tied for 3rd-most.
Data note
Takeaways and giveaways are mirror images of the same event, counted for the defense and the offense. 2026 regular season through Week 8. The interception, fumble and red-zone figures come from Remarkable™ 2026 Season notes. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Green Bay’s passing game hits up the middle, a soft spot in New England’s coverage
GBThe Packers have thrown for 11.0 yards per attempt on passes up the middle this season.
NEThe Patriots have allowed 10.5 yards per dropback on passes up the middle this season.
Green Bay: T-best in the NFL · New England: 4th-worst.
Why it matters: Green Bay throws more than anyone (63% of its plays this season, highest in the NFL), and its recent form has been strong: since Week 5, the Packers have thrown for 301.2 yards per game (3rd-best) against a New England defense that has allowed 244.8 (7th-worst), and they’ve completed 20+ yard passes on 13% of attempts (T-3rd-best) against 11% allowed (T-3rd-worst).
Green Bay has thrown for 11.0 yards per attempt on passes up the middle in 2026, tied for best in the NFL, and New England has allowed 10.5 yards per dropback on those throws, 4th-worst.
Data note
Direction is where the pass was thrown. Both sides measure yards per pass attempt (offense) and per dropback allowed (defense). 2026 regular season through Week 8; the passing-yards and 20+ yard figures cover the last four weeks. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, SR = Sportradar data).
Against a stacked front, Green Bay’s passing game has thrived where New England struggles
GBPackers quarterbacks have a 134.5 passer rating against a stacked front this season.
NEThe Patriots have allowed a 121.3 passer rating when using a stacked front this season.
Green Bay: 3rd-best in the NFL · New England: 6th-worst.
Why it matters: Green Bay has averaged 8.2 yards per play against a stacked front, best in the NFL, and the play-action numbers line up too: Packers QBs have a 115.2 rating on play action (9th-best) against a New England defense that has allowed 113.4 (5th-worst). It flips when New England has the ball, though: Patriots QBs have a 67.9 rating against a stacked front (4th-worst), and Green Bay has allowed 78.8 (6th-best).
Green Bay’s quarterbacks have a 134.5 passer rating against a stacked front in 2026, 3rd-best in the NFL, while New England has allowed a 121.3 rating with a stacked front, 6th-worst.
Data note
A stacked front puts extra defenders near the line of scrimmage, usually to stop the run, as charted by FTN Data. Both sides measure passer rating. 2026 regular season through Week 8. The yards-per-play figure comes from a Remarkable™ 2026 Season team note. Source: Inside Edge Week 9 Reasons (Remarkable™, FTN = FTN Data).
Blazing Performers
1 per teamWho’s hottest heading into Sunday, per Remarkable™. Read the clue, guess, then tap to reveal.
Green BayThis wide receiver has scored 9+ fantasy points in each of his last 8 games and has been targeted 7+ times in every game this season.
New EnglandThis quarterback has scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his last 4 games, tied for the longest active streak among NFL quarterbacks.
Blazing Performers presented by LineTerminal.
Market Context
External, secondaryThe current line has New England as a 3-point home favorite with a game total of 47. No earlier lines were available for this report, so line movement isn’t shown. These are displayed as external market prices, not an Inside Edge forecast.
The Reasons count is close, 22 to 21 in Green Bay’s favor, while the spread favors New England; the two measure different things. On scoring, New England has allowed 20.2 points per game (9th-best) and Green Bay has scored 21.4 (T-9th-worst), though the Packers have scored 6.8 points per game in the 1st quarter since Week 5 (T-5th-best) against a Patriots defense that has allowed 5.8 (T-8th-worst). New England is 3-0 at home this season. These are statistical factors, not a read on the price; Inside Edge does not state that any line is mispriced.
Not financial or betting advice. Inside Edge does not set, accept or influence sportsbook prices. Wager only through licensed, regulated platforms in your jurisdiction. Line source: Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026.
Player Prop Angles
8 insights| Player | Market | Insight lean | Rating | Key trend | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 62% | ★★★★★ | Targeted 6+ times in each of his last 5 | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rushing yards, 54.5 | Under · 60% | ★★★★★ | Over in 2 of 8 games this season | |
| Josh Jacobs | Rushing yards, 43.5 | Under · 59% | ★★★★★ | 33.8 per game, last 5 | |
| Drake Maye | Completions, 20.5 | Over · 58% | ★★★★★ | Packers allowed 26.3 per game, last 3 | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Rushing attempts, 14.5 | Under · 58% | ★★★★★ | Over in 1 of his last 5 games | |
| Christian Watson | Receptions, 4.5 | Over · 57% | ★★★★ | 5.3 per game, last 3 | |
| Josh Jacobs | Receiving yards, 21.5 | Under · 57% | ★★★★ | Over in 1 of his last 5 games | |
| Jordan Love | Passing TDs, 1.5 | Over · 56% | ★★★★ | Over in 7 of 8 games this season |
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Confidence is the Inside Edge confidence in the Over (Under = 100 minus Over). Small sample: Josh Jacobs has played 2 games this season, so his last-5 figures include games before 2026.
Line source: Remarkable™ consensus line. Sample: 2026 regular season and last 3/5 games played.
How our Week 8 prop insights did
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear here once they’re published.
Methodology
How this is calculatedHow does Inside Edge decide which team "has the edge" on a given stat?
Each comparison in this report pairs one team’s strength with the opponent’s matching weakness, ranked among all 32 teams (or among qualified players where a player is named). Edges are ordered by the size of the rank gap and by how directly the two stats measure the same thing. Inside Edge does not publish a weighted "Strong Edge / Edge / Lean" score; that scoring system is in development.
Why does this page mostly use 2026 season data?
Current-season splits reflect this year’s rosters and schemes. Where a shorter window (since Week 5, the last four weeks of games) adds useful context, the row or data note says so.
How are prop insights and confidence calculated?
Each prop insight compares the posted line to the player’s recent and season results and to what the opposing defense has allowed. The confidence figure is Inside Edge’s confidence in the Over on a 0 to 100 scale; the star rating reflects how far that figure sits from 50. Every insight is graded against the final box score on a weekly results page.
What’s the data source and refresh schedule?
Team, player and matchup statistics come from Remarkable™, Inside Edge’s proprietary sports data engine, using Sportradar and FTN Data feeds. Market prices come from Inside Edge game data. Game pages refresh on a weekly cadence during the season.
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Frequently Asked Questions
6 questionsWhich team has the stronger statistical matchup profile?
Green Bay holds a narrow statistical edge: 22 of the game’s 43 Inside Edge Reasons favor the Packers, led by a defense that has forced 16 turnovers (most in the NFL) and a passing game that has thrown for 11.0 yards per attempt up the middle (tied for best). New England’s 21 Reasons center on a run defense that has allowed 3.4 yards per carry since Week 5 (tied for 2nd-best) against a Packers backfield averaging 2.4 (worst). This reflects statistical comparison, not a forecast of the outcome.
What is the market price for Packers at Patriots?
The current line has New England -3 with a total of 47 (Inside Edge game data, Nov 4, 2026). Prices may change before kickoff.
What is New England’s strongest counterargument?
New England’s run defense has allowed 3.4 yards per carry since Week 5, tied for 2nd-best in the NFL, while Green Bay’s running backs have averaged 2.4, worst in the NFL; it is the largest rank gap of any Reason in the game. The Patriots have also gone three-and-out on just 14% of their drives this season (tied for 4th-best) against a Packers defense that has forced three-and-outs on 16% (tied for 3rd-worst).
Who are the Blazing Performers for this game?
Matthew Golden has scored 9+ fantasy points in each of his last 8 games and has been targeted 7+ times in every game this season. Drake Maye has scored 20+ fantasy points in each of his last 4 games, tied with Joe Burrow for the longest active streak among NFL quarterbacks.
How did Inside Edge’s most recent prop insights do?
Graded Week 8 results weren’t available when this page was built. They’ll appear on this page once they’re published.
Are these betting picks or financial advice?
No. This page presents descriptive, sourced statistical analysis. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee any outcome. Market pricing is shown for context only.